Displaying items by tag: bonds
Active Fixed Income Could Solve Your Tariff Related Blues
Tariff-related market volatility in 2025 highlighted the stabilizing role of fixed income, as broad bond indexes delivered 4% to 7.25% returns in the first half of the year, largely from higher coupon income. The April tariff announcement initially triggered a sharp sell-off in risk assets, but bonds held steady, underscoring their resilience compared to equities.
While the most extreme tariff scenarios have been avoided, a projected U.S. weighted average tariff rate of around 12% is still expected to influence inflation, growth, and interest rate paths. Higher yields now provide a stronger income cushion than in prior years, reducing the downside impact of rising rates and enhancing potential returns if rates fall.
Active fixed income ETFs can be especially well-suited for this environment, as managers can tactically adjust duration, credit quality, and global exposure to navigate tariff-driven market shifts. Investors are finding opportunities in high-quality bonds and global fixed income as hedges against policy-driven uncertainty.
Finsum: Tariffs remain a key macroeconomic variable shaping strategy, even in a more moderate form than initially proposed.
One of the Fastest Growing Strategic Income Funds
The Nationwide Strategic Income Fund (NWXHX) has surpassed $1 billion in assets under management, reflecting strong investor demand and consistent outperformance. Since its 2015 inception, the fund has averaged a 6.07% annual return, 2% higher than its peer group, and earned a 5-star Morningstar rating.
Its flexible, benchmark-agnostic strategy allows the fund to adapt to changing markets, guided by a seasoned management team with over a century of combined experience. The fund invests across fixed income sectors and can serve as a core or complementary bond holding.
Following Amundi US’s merger with Victory Capital, the fund was renamed in June 2025 but retained its structure, management, and investment approach. As its profile rises, Nationwide emphasizes institutional-level oversight and manager selection to deliver long-term value.
Finsum: Strategic income invests across fixed income sectors and can serve as a core or complementary bond holding.
Economy Weakens and Treasuries Rally
U.S. Treasury yields plummeted, particularly on short-term notes, after July’s jobs report came in significantly weaker than expected, reigniting investor expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.
The two-year yield dropped 25 basis points to 3.71%, its steepest one-day fall in a year, as traders priced in an 80% chance of a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting. The labor data showed just 73,000 jobs added in July, well below forecasts, and revisions to prior months brought the three-month hiring average to a pandemic-era low of 35,000.
The market’s reaction signaled a dramatic pivot in sentiment, further fueled by political pressure from President Trump and dovish dissent from two Fed governors. Treasury futures volumes surged as traders abandoned flattening yield curve bets, and BlackRock analysts now anticipate a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, with more to follow by year-end.
Finsum: The Fed can afford aggressive easing without stoking inflation, setting the stage for a bold monetary policy shift.
The Present State of Munis
So far in 2025, investment-grade bonds have generally delivered modest gains, but municipal bonds have bucked the trend with disappointing performance. The iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) returned 2.85% through mid-June, while the iShares National Muni Bond ETF (MUB) declined by 1.29%, despite their similar credit quality and low fees.
One key difference lies in liquidity: municipal bonds are often held long-term, making them harder to trade, with wide bid-ask spreads that erode value during redemptions. Outflows from MUB and uncertainty around tax policy, especially the fate of the 2017 tax cuts, may also be pressuring muni prices.
For investors in high tax brackets, limited allocations to diversified, low-cost muni funds may still be warranted, but caution is advised, and exposure should generally stay under 20% of fixed income holdings.
Finsum: Structural issues, like the possibility of reduced federal funding for states and large unfunded liabilities, further cloud the muni bond outlook.
Income Investors Should Be Eyeing the Emerging Market
As expectations for interest rate cuts build, emerging market (EM) debt is drawing increasing attention from investors. Lower U.S. rates typically weaken the dollar, making EM currencies more attractive and boosting returns on dollar-denominated EM bonds.
This favorable backdrop has already spurred strong demand, with EM bond issuance in Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa reaching $190 billion in the first half of 2025, on pace to break historical records.
The Vanguard Emerging Markets Government Bond ETF (VWOB) offers investors a low-cost, diversified way to access this space, boasting a 30-day SEC yield of 5.66% and nearly 7% YTD return. As rate cut bets intensify into September, VWOB is positioned to benefit from both income and potential price appreciation.
Finsum: For investors seeking EM exposure without the complexities of individual bond selection, ETFs offer compelling options