Displaying items by tag: bonds

When stocks are down like they were last year, investors usually look towards treasuries for safety. But last year was unlike any other year. While the S&P 500 fell 18%, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond index slumped 13%. However, a year like 2022 is unlikely to happen again any time soon. According to analysts, that leaves “room for those bonds to reclaim their role as a core risk-off allocation for asset owners this year.” For example, when SVB Financial Group recently announced hefty losses, the S&P 500 index fell 3.4% between March 8th and March 13th. But investors looking for a safe haven in long-dated Treasuries sent yields plunging, providing bondholders with a gain of more than 4%. Many analysts expect the conditions that led to close correlations between the stock and bond market “to prove ephemeral.” According to Jason Vaillancourt, global macro strategist with Putnam Investments, the biggest risk for those strong correlations is when "The Fed gets really fired up to fight inflation, as with the central bank's 'uh-oh' moment last year — when inflationary pressures it had deemed transitory proved anything but, forcing the central bank to shift aggressively to catch-up mode.” He added, “With the Fed frontloading its fight against inflation last year, the conditions required to maintain correlations at 1 this year are unlikely to persist.”

Finsum:With the Fed front-loading its fight against inflation last year, the conditions that led to a high correlation between the stock and bonds markets, aren’t likely to persist.

Investors poured into U.S government bonds Monday after last week’s collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. This sent Treasury yields plunging. The 2-year Treasury yield was recently trading at 4.06%, down 100 basis points or a full percentage point, since Wednesday. This marks the largest three-day decline for the 2-yield since Oct. 22, 1987, when the yield fell 117 basis points. That move followed the October 19th, 1987 stock market crash, which is also known as “Black Monday.” The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down just under 20 basis points. Prices soared and yields fell after news of the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Regulators took over the bank on Friday after mass withdrawals on Thursday led to a bank run. Regulators announced on Sunday that they would guarantee Silicon Valley Bank’s depositors. With fears of contagion across the banking sector spiking, investors looked to government bonds for safety. Investors are also rethinking how aggressive the Federal Reserve will be with rate hikes after the bank’s collapse. This helped to send short-term yields lower. The Fed is meeting next week and was expected to raise rates for the ninth time since last March. However, Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse may change that. Goldman Sachs certainly thinks so. The investment bank no longer thinks the Fed will hike rates, citing “recent stress” in the financial sector.

Finsum:After Silicon Valley Bank’s recent collapse, fears of contagion across the banking sector spread, driving investors into Treasury bonds, which sent yields tumbling.

According to research from data analytics company Coalition Greenwich, the influence of some corporate bond ETFs on their underlying holdings has increased, as the electronification of fixed-income trading has created an upheaval in how bonds are traded. The firm found that the trading volumes of 12 of the largest corporate bond ETFs rose from 18% of the turnover in their constituent investment grade and high-yield bonds in 2021 to 23% in 2022. In addition, the proportion was even more marked when Coalition Greenwich narrowed its focus to the five high-yield ETFs in its study. In this case, it found average daily notional volume soared from 30.5% of the underlying bonds in 2021 to 47.4%. What this means is that ETFs accounted for nearly half of the daily traded value of the underlying bonds. Kevin McPartland, head of market structure and technology research at Coalition Greenwich stated, “In the last three years everything has changed, all bond market participants now traded at least some of their volume electronically, which was transforming the market.” The increasing share of volume traded is an indication of a revolution in which corporate bonds are traded. Fixed-income ETFs have helped to increase the electronification of the corporate bond market, which has resulted in better price discovery, liquidity, and tighter spreads.

Finsum:According to research from data analytics company Coalition Greenwich,the trading volumes of some of the largest corporate bond ETFs are rising and accounting for a higher daily traded value of the underlying bonds.

One of the top financial stories in 2023 so far is the hot bond market. But it’s not just true for institutional investors, retail traders are also piling into bonds. One reason for this is that it has never been easier to buy Treasuries. They can be bought directly from the Treasury Department, at discount brokerages, or accessed through ETFs. It is also due to a huge shift in fixed income as rate expectations have sent yields on bonds to their highest in years. The 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year treasuries are all yielding around 4%. In fact, retail traders are so honed in on buying bonds, they've crashed the TreasuryDirect website repeatedly. Shawn Cruz, Head Trading Strategist at TD Ameritrade, recently told Yahoo Finance that “For pretty much the entire decade, leading up to this year, when people asked about retail and fixed income, I could just simply say, ‘no one really cares.’ The past year, that has significantly changed.” Sales of Treasury bills with maturities of one year or less through TreasuryDirect were $12.0 billion in January, a new record. BlackRock, the largest provider of ETFs by assets, has also benefited from this boom. So far in 2023, investors have poured $9.9 billion into U.S. iShares fixed-income ETFs.

Finsum:Retail traders are piling into bonds this year due to easier access to Treasuries and the highest bond yields in years.

Is there a little something something between bonds and James Bond?

Well, bonds, at least, are expected back this year, according to schwab.com. 

James? Filming a movie somewhere. Yeah, yeah; unreliable as ever.

Thing is, in the aftermath of an extended period of low yields -- not to mention last year’s to eagerly forget price dip, three tries at what’s on the precipice of a comeback: returns in the fixed income market, according to the site.

So, why so upbeat about returns? It goes like this:

Both nominally and in reality, starting yields are the highest in years;

The bulk of the Fed tightening cycle has wrapped up; and

A deceleration of Inflation’s likely

Following a prolonged dry spell, the bond market’s replete with yields that – compared to other investments – are appealing. A portfolio consisting of bonds; and high quality at that, like Treasuries, can translate -- without an excessively long period – around 4% to 5%.

Bonds, explained Ted Stephenson, professor of Accounting and finance at George Brown College, continue to be part of a diversified investment portfolio – an indispensable one at that, according to usnews.com.

"Regardless of correlation, bonds have done well versus stocks in six out of seven historical recessions. Ultimately, the correlation between stocks and bonds is not as important as relative performance."