(Washington)

In what must be seen as nothing other than a major diplomatic breakthrough, reports are out that the head of the US’ CIA, Mike Pompeo, had a face to face meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The meeting comes in advance of President Trump’s planned meeting with Un. The meeting apparently took place over Easter weekend and was a way to lay the groundwork for the president’s meeting. Reports of the meeting were first covered by the Washington Post, and the White House confirmed it had been having meetings at “very high levels”.

FINSUM: We are not sure why Un is talking to the US after decades of diplomatic silence, but we certainly see the dialogue as good news.

(New York)

There have been growing fears over the real estate market for the last couple of years, and now one corner of the market is in the middle of a growing apocalypse. Retail real estate is currently on trend to have by far the worst year in memory. Already in 2018, 77 million square feet of retail store space has been closed. In 2017, which was seen as the pinnacle of the collapse, 105m closed the entire year. The sector has been hit by the rise in ecommerce and changing shopping habits. Now landlords don’t even know what to do with all their space. They will likely “Try to re-let it as a gun range or a church—or it’s going to go back to being a cornfield”, says a head of real estate at a private equity firm. The US has 24 square feet of retail space per person, by far the highest in the world.

FINSUM: Not only do you have ecommerce as a threat, but consumer spending is starting to tighten as we near the end of this cycle. This is going to be a major bust.

(Washington)

Many advisors are hoping the SEC will dive headlong into the fiduciary rule debate and quickly put in place a new fiduciary standard of their own. SEC chairman Jay Clayton has said it is a priority, and hopes got a big boost this week as the SEC is holding a pubic meeting to discuss the specifics of forming a new rule. However, those hoping for a quick resolution will be sorely disappointed, as there are still many steps, and many potential pitfalls, before the rule could become a reality. In particular, the DOL could still challenge its court loss, and many lawsuits could hold up the implementation of any SEC-proposed rule.

FINSUM: When you really take a look at the procedure and the legal risks, the timeline to actually get a new rule in place seems very far away indeed.

(New York)

In what shocked us as a very eye opening statement, a number of funds are saying the market now is more fragile than before the Financial Crisis. According to one so-called tail fund, or funds that invest for profiting when there is a big market reversal, “The financial system is a lot more fragile than it was in 2007 … Leverage is up on every single metric, in just about every category, and debt has increased. The more you indebt someone, the more fragile they become, especially with variable interest rates”, says hedge fund manager Richard Haworth.

FINSUM: These kind of funds are always warning about the next catastrophe, but somehow their warnings seem more prescient right now.

(New York)

With clients aging, valuations high, and rates uncertain, many may be looking for some good income stocks. Look now further than utilities, says Barron’s. In particular, the Reaves Utility Income Fund, which conceives utilities more broadly and includes telecom and interstate gas properties. The overall view for utilities is strong as they are relatively stable during periods of changing rates. Right now they average yields in the mid 3% range and they seem to be able to deliver growth of 5-7% per year. Valuations also look reasonable.

FINSUM: Barron’s paints a rosy picture of the utilities sector, but if rates head head north it could be a tough time. That said, we think rates and yields are going to stay reasonably stable, so these might be a good buy.

(New York)

There is a lot of excitement and anxiety about the investigation into Michael Cohen, president Trump’s personal lawyer. Many fear that investigators may get him to spill all details about his dealings with Trump. The media has been hyping the idea, with magazines like Esquire saying “We can safely speculate that Cohen knows everything: the money, the scams, the women, the Russians. All of it”. However, Bloomberg reports that Cohen is not the biggest fish investigators could catch and that there are many close to Trump who know much more about his affairs than Cohen. In reality, another lawyer named Jason Greenblatt, who worked as in-house counsel for the Trump organization for almost 20 years, probably knows much more.

FINSUM: He may not know the most, but it seems like Cohen probably knows enough to get Trump in even hotter water.

(New York)

If you are looking for a sign of how bank earnings might be doing, look no further than Goldman Sachs. Goldman has struggled over the last several quarters as its trading business has failed to generate much revenue because of the broad lack of volatility over the last couple of years. However, in a divergence from the norm, this quarter is supposed to be very strong because of the volatility that has hit markets. One of the big x-factors in the earnings will be how Goldman’s proprietary investments perform.

FINSUM: If Goldman does well it will bode well for the rest of the banks, especially because other trading divisions will likely see a pick up too.

(Washington)

Well, after a long wait (but perhaps one shorter than most expected), the SEC is ready to announce its framework for a new fiduciary rule this week. The SEC plans to hold a public meeting to discuss the three components of its new rule: “whether to propose new rules and forms for brokers and RIAs to summarize their relationships with clients; whether to establish a standard of conduct for brokers; and whether to provide an “interpretation” of the fiduciary responsibility of RIAs”. Advocates of the current DOL rule don’t like the approach the SEC is taking because it appears to be disclosure-based, something they think is insufficient to fulfil the need for fiduciary duty.

FINSUM: To be honest we did not think the industry would be able to have this much insight into the new SEC rule this quickly. Stay tuned.

(Washington)

The public spat between the president and the former director of the FBI went very public yesterday as a Comey interview about his firing was aired on national television last night. In the interview, Comey called Trump morally unfit to be president and said that Russia may be holding something over Trump that is affecting his behavior. Comey would not say whether he thought Trump firing him amounted to obstruction of justice, saying that would be up to investigators to decide. Trump fired back at Comey through a series of tweets.

FINSUM: Hard to say if this spat will amount to anything, but one thing is clear—it will not lessen the pressure Trump is under in regards to this investigation.

(New York)

Banks may be about to receive a huge gift from regulators in a move that shows just how much the deregulatory push of the Trump era might help the financial industry. The US Federal Reserve, which has significant oversight of the financial regulatory landscape has proposed changes which would loosen restrictions on banks’ balance sheets, allowing them to become more reliant on debt financing, thus having more leverage.

FINSUM: All the details of the new proposals are not clear yet, but this could be a significant boon for banks.