Markets

The bond market boom has been bad for many fixed income investors, and debt is coming to term in a higher inflationary environment which is eating up all the return. However, bond market investors are turning to factor based investing to earn excess returns. Factor investing is a $700 billion market in equities, and it dwarfs the $25 billion dollar fixed income factor market. Factor investing modifies indices based on factors they think can give an edge over traditional indices. Active bond factor investing can outperform traditional indices in rising yield environments, but factor investing is looking to rival these active funds with systemic decisions. A ‘smart beta’ approach will look to outperform in high yield and emerging market debt.


FINSUM: The extensive literature on systemic fixed income is relatively small, and that's why smart beta strategies have failed to take off in the bond market like they have in equities.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. is the latest financial firm to sell debt in the U.S. Bond Market, joining the likes of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and Citigroup Inc.. JPMorgan is selling over $3 billion in bonds with a yield of .97 percentage points over the U.S. Treasuries and 11 year maturity. The flood in financial bonds is a result of the strong earnings posted by the financial industry in the last quarter. Goldman leads the pack with over $9 Billion in new debt issuance. However, some say JPMorgan is the most susceptible to issuance pressure from regulators with debt issuance driving leverage.


FINSUM: Don’t let balance sheet risk get anyone worried, because post 2008 leverage ratios are closely monitored and almost ensure fiscal support pending financial risk.

Headline inflation, which includes food and energy prices, rose at a staggering 4.4% annual growth at the end of September, which is the highest number posted since 1991. This isn’t necessarily the Fed’s preferred inflation metric because food and energy prices are more volatile than other areas, but even excluding those categories core inflation was at 3.1%. On top of that, personal income is down almost 1%, which makes that inflation gain even more painful. Policy makers are worried about overall economic health as stagflation becomes a real possibility with GDP coming in at just 2%, the weakest quarter since the recovery started. Treasury Secretary Yellen says that yearly inflation will remain high but she expects monthly inflation to come down as the year closes, with headline figures coming down towards the target of 2%. On the positive side, wages and salaries kept up this month, hitting 4.6% but that still poses challenges for the labor market in its own way.


FINSUM: Inflation is still posting strong gains but keep your eyes on the monthly annualized numbers to gauge if what Yellen says is accurate.

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