Markets
The bond market has taken a beating and investment-grade debt has been anything but a safe haven for income investors. This has been one of the third-worst stretches in history as the YTD returns have been -10.5% which is only bested by the Lehman collapse in late 2008 where returns crept to -14.3% and Volcker’s days of battling high inflation and hiking rates. Investors are selling off investment-grade debt as the risk-free rates on Treasuries are climbing as the Fed’s tightening cycle is beginning. These rising yields are all corporate bond ETFs and driving returns down, but things could get worse as rates will only continue to rise and inflation is only beginning.
Finsum: Income investors need to look to active funds or abroad if they want relief in the bond market.
Stagflation has been out of the public lexicon since the Greenspan era, but as inflation begins to gradually creep up again that word is beginning to seem like a higher probability. Inflation has climbed to 8.5% and growth is expected to slow dramatically for 2021Q1 to 1.7%. Small-cap is a great option during these times because they are a great alternative partially in Finance. Preferred Bank is a great option with earnings estimates rising and is moving into a bullish category on Wallstreet. Others to watch out for are Mercantile Bank Corp and Old Second Bancorp as they are also well-positioned small-cap financials to stave off stagflation.
Finsum: It's amazing that equities are the most stabilizing force on Wallstreet right now, but small-cap might just be the play as volatility rises.
In this episode, Marty Nesbitt joins Melissa Francis and Magnifi by TIFIN to share his views on Private Equity and how the asset class is poised for periods of rising prices.
To watch the full interview with Marty Nesbitt, in addition to interviews with Anthony Scaramucci, Kyle Bass and Jeffrey Gundlach, check out Magnifi by TIFIN.
Melissa Francis: We have a very special guest to talk about private equity investments, Marty Nesbitt. He is co-CEO of The Vistria Group, which is a Chicago based private equity firm.
He is also on the board of directors of publicly traded companies like CenterPoint Energy, Norfolk Southern Corporation, and American Airlines group. Marty, thank you so much for being here.
First of all, tell us a little bit about Vistria, some of your founding principles and maybe some of your current assets or maybe the deals you like the most.
Marty Nesbitt: Yeah, sure. I'm happy to do so. Vistria was birthed from a set of personal experience by my co- founder Kip Kirkpatrick and I, who had both been in the investment world, in public service and obviously operated as entrepreneurs.
And we thought, as we harvested our experiences, that at the intersection of public and private interest, there was a value proposition that we felt hadn't been recognized in the marketplace.
And so we thought if we invested at the intersection of what was important to the public and what was important to the private sector, we could figure out how to harvest value.
We thought about the three industries where that opportunity set was greatest and settled in on healthcare, education and financial services, where we thought the value or the opportunity set was greatest.
And so, Vistria is a name that we made up because that's one of the hardest things there is to do when you start any business, that's find a name, but it means the power of three.
And it's the power of investing with the requisite amount of investment experience and expertise, the requisite amount of operating expertise, but then also a long term policy perspective so that you can be invested in places that are not only good for the businesses, good for employees, customers, and investors, but also good for the broader public.
That policy perspective is the third dimension that we invest behind.
Watch the full episode with Marty Nesbitt HERE
Melissa Francis: Yeah, I know, that brings up so many questions. Let me start with just a few. Private equity in general, you see really great out sized returns. How do you keep that up when stocks and bonds are having such a rough time like they are right now?
Marty Nesbitt: Well, look, one of the beautiful things about building a private equity platform is the opportunity to be really focused in an industry or a sub- sector of an industry where you can develop real expertise.
And so we spend a lot of time developing themes that we want to invest behind and then going very, very deep so that we know the levers to create value what the long term proposition is.
And so even in an environment where we see prices rising, as there's so much capital competing for these opportunities, we have confidence about the value creation plan we can put in place and the way that we can generate our return objectives in a very difficult, challenging pricing environment.
So being focused is a way to mitigate some of that risk.
Watch the full episode with Marty Nesbitt HERE
Magnifi, 2440 Junction Place, Suite 300, Boulder, CO 80301
Advisory services are offered through Magnifi LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Being registered as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The information contained herein should in no way be construed or interpreted as a solicitation to sell or offer to sell advisory services to any residents of any State where notice-filed or otherwise legally permitted. All content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to provide any tax or legal advice or provide the basis for any financial decisions. Nor is it intended to be a projection of current or future performance or indication of future results. Moreover, this material has been derived from sources believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness and does not purport to be a complete analysis of the materials discussed. Purchases are subject to suitability. This requires a review of an investor’s objective, risk tolerance, and time horizons. Investing always involves risk and possible loss of capital.
Magnifi LLC does not charge advisory fees or transaction fees for non-managed accounts. Clients who elect to have Magnifi LLC manage all or a portion of their account will be charged an advisory fee. Please see Magnifi’s Form ADV Part 2A Brochure available at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov for additional information about fees and charges that may apply. Magnifi LLC receives compensation from product sponsors related to recommendations. Other fees and charges may apply.
More...
The bond market has given investors pause, and the international bond market especially so. While continuing Covid-19, international war, and rising rates may scare investors, international bonds still add enough diversification to justify their place in the portfolio. Investors are more worried about inflation/interest rates now than Ukraine and Russia, and that risk is heightened domestically. As the Fed hikes rates, yields will rise and hurt domestic bond and equity portfolios. The Euro area has significantly less interest and inflation risk in the near term. Additionally, the deglobalization of covid is slowly going away, and as markets open up that will only improve the position of international bonds.
Finsum: ETFs with large exposure are best in international markets because tensions surrounding global issues are heightened right now.
Not all REITs are created equally, and many have been pumping out dividends and will come to a screeching halt as the Fed begins to hike interest rates. However, three REITs are in a good position to show dividend resilience to the interest rate risk. The First is Medical Properties Trust which is a healthcare REIT that has three developing investments to create flows for dividends. VICI Properties is up next which is acquiring MGM Growth Properties and has a very low debt to EBITDA ratio which will help in securing dividend payouts. Finally, a long-term strategy is the 1st Street Office which has a consistently high dividend and shares are tied to its NAV.
Finsum: Rate hikes are slow to affect real estate compared to other assets, but aggressive hikes could move quicker.
The muni market has seen sky-rocketing volatility the last ten days with the highest point since the onset of the pandemic. That volatility has hurt many investors as yields rose by over 11 basis points sending bond prices tumbling. Triggering this decline in muni bond prices was Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish turn which included tapering asset purchases and raising rates. This loss is positioning munis for their worst quarter in almost 30 years. Some muni bond issuers are pausing or flat out canceling their development in the wake of a flat out crisis.
Finsum: This could be a quarter for muni bonds which have a close pass through to the Feds target interest rate and are therefore more sensitive.