Wealth Management

Scott Bessent, President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, emphasized the critical importance of maintaining the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency during his testimony to the Senate Finance Committee. 

 

He advocated for prioritizing productive investments over wasteful spending to stimulate economic growth while addressing vulnerabilities in supply chains and strategically using sanctions for national security. Bessent reiterated support for making Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent, warning of a historic $4 trillion tax hike if Congress fails to act. 

 

He also outlined plans for pro-growth policies, including reducing the corporate tax rate to 15% for U.S.-based manufacturers and exempting tips and Social Security income from taxation. Bessent underscored Trump's aggressive tariff plans to counter perceived unfair trade practices and strengthen domestic industries. 


Finsum: This administration could usher in a transformative era but we’ll see how tariffs and tax cuts off set for economic Growth. 

Public pension funds, including CalSTRS and LACERA, are enlisting consultants and specialists to navigate the intricate structures used by private equity firms to extend the lifespan of investments. LACERA, managing $82 billion as of November, has allocated resources for a new role focused on operational due diligence within its private markets portfolio. 

 

With private equity increasingly relying on financial engineering, experts stress the need for limited partners to stay informed to adapt to these complex arrangements. Examples of strained assets rolled into continuation vehicles, like Upstream and United Site Services, highlight the challenges of managing leveraged investments in a high-interest-rate environment.

 

Despite these pressures, some private equity firms, such as Audax, maintain optimism about long-term recovery through operational improvements and strategic adjustments. 


Finsum: Although pockets of distress exist, we remain confident in the resilience of private markets and their ability to weather economic headwinds.

 

The private credit market faces significant risks due to relaxed lending standards and the influx of capital, warns Nick Moakes of the Wellcome Trust. He anticipates substantial losses for investors if the U.S. economy enters a recession. 

 

While private credit is less systemically risky than traditional banking, diminished checks on borrowing have raised concerns. Rating agency KBRA projects defaults in the sector to rise to 3% by 2025, driven by higher interest rates and vulnerable business models. 

 

Moakes also criticized large alternative asset managers, noting their focus on asset growth may not align with investor interests. Despite the risks, the Wellcome Trust avoids direct private credit investments but monitors the market through its private equity allocations.


Finsum: With rates moves slowing down we think private credit could have an advantage over traditional fixed income products. 

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