Wealth Management

Model portfolios have been growing at a consistent rate for decades due to increasing adoption by younger advisors and more awareness among investors. Now, they have reached a size at which they are starting to affect markets especially when dealing with more illiquid securities. Currently, they collectively manage $3 trillion in assets under management (AUM).

It’s natural to consider the risks and opportunities as these ripple effects will only grow with model portfolios forecast to exceed $10 trillion in AUM over the next decade. In fact, recent unusual flows into various ETFs are often due to changes in the holdings of model portfolios.

Most model portfolios are constructed with ETFs. They are managed by investment teams of asset managers and can enable advisors to spend less time on portfolio management or security selection and more time on building their business and managing client relations. 

Since 2018, more than 400 model portfolio offerings have been launched. Most research shows that model portfolios tend to outperform advisor-managed portfolios. Ultimately, it’s an acknowledgement that beating the market is nearly impossible and that an advisors’ job is increasingly about financial planning rather than investing. 


Finsum: Model portfolio AUM is already in excess of $3 trillion. Here’s why the category is forecast to exceed $10 trillion over the next decade. 

Fixed income posted its worst quarterly performance in over a year as the market has been reducing odds of rate cuts, while increasing odds of additional hikes and extending its estimate of the duration of tight policy. This also led to the first quarterly decline in equities this year.

 

Yields on long-duration Treasuries are now at their highest level since 2007. Fed hawkishness is even neutering positive reactions to benign economic data as evidenced by the recent low PCE print. Fixed income was initially bid up, however this strength was sold into as most bonds finished the day unchanged. Some additional reasons may be the recent rise in oil which could handcuff the Fed from pivoting, huge supply of Treasuries hitting the market over the next couple of quarters, and uncertainty over the government shutdown. 

 

In terms of fixed income performance, short-duration assets are outperforming, while long-duration assets are hitting new lows. Many strategists are now saying that yields will rise further with the 10Y going past 5%. 

 

The contrarian case is that the Fed is close to the end of its tightening cycle and that the economy is finally starting to show signs of contraction. Thus, investors should buy on the dip to take advantage of these elevated yields.


Finsum: Fixed income and equities both performed poorly in Q3. For fixed income, here are some of the factors behind the weakness.

 

Ben Hammer, the Head of Client Development for Vanguard, recently spoke to an audience of financial advisors about direct indexing. The asset manager clearly sees it as a major growth avenue especially as most advisors and investors remain unfamiliar with the concept and its benefits.

 

According to surveys of investors and advisors, the most appealing part of direct indexing is the potential tax savings which is not possible with traditional passive investing. By recreating indexes within an individual investors’ account, losing positions can be sold while stocks with similar factor scores are added in substitution to maintain consistency with the benchmark. Another benefit is customization as investors can adjust a portfolio’s holding based on their own situation, values, or preferences. 

 

Hammer also stressed that direct indexing wouldn’t be available to a wide swathe of the investing universe because of its cost and complexity. However, these issues have been solved by technology as trading costs have plummeted, while software handles the regular scans for tax loss harvesting opportunities and rebalancing.

 

Still, direct indexing is probably not necessary for most investors. It can be the perfect solution for those who want more tax savings and customization while retaining the benefits of passive investing. 


Finsum: At a recent conference for financial advisors, Vanguard’s Ben Hammer spoke about the evolution of direct indexing and its growth prospects.

 

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