Displaying items by tag: private equity

Private equity markets, lacking transparent pricing, may be nearing a downturn despite their lack of observable bubbles. The influx of capital over recent decades has led to inflated valuations, with private equity assets soaring to $3.5 trillion by 2023. 

Rising interest rates threaten the industry, which thrived in low-rate environments, potentially leading to poor returns and capital shortages. Pension funds, heavily invested in private equity, face significant risks, impacting both retirees and taxpayers. 

The sector's rapid expansion could have long-term negative economic effects as it adjusts to new financial conditions. The deflation of the private equity market, although gradual, could still result in significant economic challenges.

Finsum: With a possible cut on the horizon there is still a possibility of sustainability. 

The total value of buyout deals in PE is projected to reach $521 billion by year-end, an 18% increase over 2023, driven by larger transaction sizes. However, divestitures are stagnating, leaving funds with aging assets and prompting investors to seek higher returns. 

The 10 largest buyout funds have raised 64% of the total capital, while one in five smaller funds remain below their fundraising targets. Bain & Company's Private Equity Midyear Report highlights that the sector has raised $422 billion by mid-May 2024, with buyout funds leading at $199 billion. 

Despite a slight decline in fundraising overall, the report notes a historical low in activity volume, with significant dry powder yet to be deployed. Additionally, the report foresees stable growth in divestitures, but 2024 could still be one of the lowest years for exits since 2016.

Finsum: Privates could begin to slide as rates normalize and people look to traditional products, but we are a little far from that happening. 

With private credit booming, private equity firms are upping their forecasts for their lending businesses. Apollo Global sees loan origination exceeding $200 billion annually in the next couple of years, up from its previous forecast of $150 billion. It’s seeing increased loan demand due to faster economic growth and public and private spending on infrastructure.

What’s new is that many of these private equity giants are now looking at lower-risk lending to investment-grade companies to fuel growth. This would put them in even more direct competition with banks. Apollo’s co-President Jim Zelter sees many investment-grade domestic companies pursuing capital expenditure projects and believes that private credit can compete with fixed income and equity as funding sources.

Already, banks are feeling some impact. In Q1, JPMorgan reported $699 billion in non-consumer loans outstanding, which was a $3 billion decline from last year. CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that the entry of new lenders brings ‘an area of unexpected risk in the markets.’ 

Previously, he noted that these lenders have less transparency and regulations than banks, which ‘often gives them a significant advantage.’ He specifically cited startup banks, fintech companies, and private equity firms as examples of companies that function effectively as banks but are outside of the regulatory system. 

Finsum: Private credit is taking market share away from banks. Now, private equity firms are looking to target investment-grade companies. Many banks are warning that this brings risks to the financial system.

The IMF estimates that the private credit industry is now over $2 trillion in size, with 75% of it located in the US. It now rivals the leveraged loan and high-yield credit markets in size. Private credit offers borrowers more speed and flexibility and provides higher returns and less volatility to investors. 

While the advantages are clear, the IMF warns that as lending moves away from regulated financial institutions to private markets, systemic risks will increase. With private credit, there is less transparency, price discovery, and information about credit quality. Additionally, there is less information about how various players in the ecosystem are connected. Therefore, the IMF doesn’t see near-term risks but believes that as private credit keeps growing, there will be a need for greater regulation. 

On average, private credit borrowers tend to be smaller and have weaker balance sheets than companies raising money through syndicated loans or public markets. This means more downside risk in the event of rising rates or a negative economic shock. 

Currently, the IMF estimates that ⅓ of private credit borrowers’ financing costs are higher than earnings. It also warns that lending standards have weakened amid increased competition among lenders due to the influx of capital in the sector. 

Finsum: The private credit industry has experienced rapid growth over the last few years and now rivals the size of the high-yield credit and leveraged loan markets. Here’s why the IMF is concerned that continued growth could lead to systemic risks to financial stability.

KKR recently shared its growth strategy for alternative investments geared towards wealthy individual investors. Initially, it plans to offer products focused on private credit, private equity, infrastructure, and real estate and aims to distribute them through financial advisors. The firm has noted strong interest from wealth managers and registered investment advisors. It believes that its 48 years of experience in the space and strong legacy will differentiate KKR from its competitors.

According to Eric Mogelof, KKR’s head of Global Client Solutions, “Private wealth is a transformational opportunity for KKR. Private wealth is large, it’s growing quickly, and importantly, allocations to alternatives in this space are only going in one direction, and that is up.” KKR sees alternatives accounting for 6% of the private wealth market by 2027, a sharp increase from its 2% share in 2022. 

This series of products will offer qualified investors the same type of access as institutional clients without any additional fees. KKR also believes that these products will be more liquid than competing alternatives. The firm also sees momentum to offer even more alternative product types in the near future. This is in response to their conversations with advisors, banks, wirehouses, and brokers, who have found that allocations to alternatives are increasing. 

Finsum: KKR sees a big opportunity in alternative investments and is launching a suite of products. It hopes to target wealthy investors through financial advisors.