Displaying items by tag: fixed income

At the latest FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell made some headlines when he struck a dovish tone despite resuming its normal schedule of quarter-point rate hikes. He also slightly upped his assessment of the economy declaring it growing at a ‘moderate’ pace while it has been described as growing at a ‘modest’ pace previously. 

In terms of fixed income, the asset class initially saw a decent rally due to many investors interpreting Powell’s dovishness as an indication that the Fed is in the final stages of its hiking campaign. But, these gains were quickly given back with yields spiking higher following the stronger than expected GDP print which came in at 2.4% vs expectations of 1.6%. 

Following this print, odds of the Fed cutting rates in the first-half of 2024 declined, and many market forecasters pushed back or revised thier prediction of a recession as well. With the economy robust despite higher rates, it’s likley that rates stay elevated for longer. Adding to the weakness was unemployment claims coming in lower than expected, adding to evidence that the labor market is re-accelerating following a period of softness. 

As a result, Treasury yields spiked hihger and are now approaching their 52-week highs.

Finsum: Fixed-income enjoyed a nice rally following the dovish FOMC meeting. But, the asset class weakened following a stronger than expected GDP print and lower than expected unemployment claims. 

Cerulli Associates conducted a survey of ETF issuers which revealed some interesting findings. Already we are seeing fixed income ETFs gaining market share and seeing a surge of inflows due to higher yields and an uncertain economic outlook, but issuers anticipate fixed income ETFs to continue to outpace equity ETFs in coming years.

Within the fixed income ETF universe, they are particularly bullish on active fixed income. This is different from equities where passive funds dominate active in terms of inflows. But, active fixed income funds have a better track record of outperformance. Further, they are able to take advantage of more opportunities in terms of duration and credit quality as compared to passive fixed income funds, leading to better performance. 

According to the survey, issuers expect growth in fixed income ETFs to be driven by institutional advisors and increased familiarity from financial advisors. Based on the findings, Cerulli recommends firms interested in active fixed income products to look for categories with few competitors to offer funds with low fees and attractive pricing. The firm also believes that many fixed income ETF issuers are failing to differentiate their product.

Finsum: Cerulli Associates conducted a survey of ETF issuers and came out with some interesting findings regarding passive and active fixed income funds.

What scent are they picking up on? The lay out: they want to leverage climbing interest rates, which are tugging the total in MMFs past $5tn. That said, many members of that pack were ready to segue into fixed income – when investors felt gob smack sure that yields would sidestep taking a hit by additional action on the Fed’s part, said Blackrock, according to ft.com.

“There is finally income to be earned in the fixed income market and we are expecting a resurgence in demand,” said Rob Kapito, president.* “There are trillions . . . that are ready, when people feel rates have peaked, to flood the market and we need to position ourselves to capture that.”

Like a boxer holding his own despite absorbing more than his share of a pummeling, while the U.S. economy continues to hold tough, when it comes to core fixed income, the macro outlook’s looking up, according to sageadvisory.com.

Over the upcoming quarters, a cocktail of appealing yield carry and escalating returns rates skews returns north.

Until a couple of months ago, the market’s consensus forecast was that inflation would gradually ebb lower as the Fed’s rate hikes would choke off economic activity, resulting in an inevitable recession. Needless to say, this scenario was very bullish for fixed income as it would let investors take advantage of higher yields and then profit from appreciation in bond prices.

Of course, reality had a different plan. Rather than a recession, we are seeing the economy continue to grow and add jobs. In fact, there is increasing evidence that the business cycle could be turning higher. Similarly, inflation has proven to be stickier than anticipated, and many believe we could be in a regime of ‘higher for longer’ inflation.

For ETF.com, Lisa Barr spoke to Monish Verma of Vardhan Wealth Management to get his insights on how to navigate this terrain. He believes that inflation will be structurally higher over the next decade which means more volatility in fixed income. 

In terms of duration, he likes the short-end at the moment but recommends tactically adding longer-duration closer to the end of the year as the Fed nears the end of its hiking cycle. He also recommends fixed income ETFs that are low-cost and diversified as offering the most upside. 

FinSum: Many fixed income investors were caught off guard when the economy and inflation proved to be more resilient than expected. Here are some strategies to consider if inflation continues to linger.

For Barron’s, Steve Garmhausen conducted a roundup of various financial advisors to get their input on the best strategy for fixed-income. Some of the factors to consider are where the Fed is in terms of rate hikes, is a recession imminent or will the economy continue to defy the skeptics, and will inflation continue to decline or will it plateau at an uncomfortably high level.

Yet, what is certain is that Treasury yields are at their highest level in decades. Further, investors can lock in positive real returns for many years given the jump in yields, coupled with the decline in inflation.

According to Matt Kishlansky of GenTrust, it’s a great time for investors to buy short-dated TIPS given the 3% coupon. This would outperform Treasuries as long as the inflation rate stays above 1.9%. And, he believes that inflation will prove to be much ‘stickier’ than consensus forecasts.

Thomas Salvino, the CEO of Performance Wealth, recommends building a ladder of Treasuries to lock in yields at different durations. Overall, he still believes the best way to build wealth is to build a portfolio of high-quality companies that are regularly increasing dividend payments. 

Finsum: Fixed-income is in the spotlight as investors and advisors look to lock in lofty Treasury yields. Barron’s asked some advisors on their best fixed-income strategy.