Fixed income posted its worst quarterly performance in over a year as the market has been reducing odds of rate cuts, while increasing odds of additional hikes and extending its estimate of the duration of tight policy. This also led to the first quarterly decline in equities this year.

Yields on long-duration Treasuries are now at their highest level since 2007. Fed hawkishness is even neutering positive reactions to benign economic data as evidenced by the recent low PCE print. Fixed income was initially bid up, however this strength was sold into as most bonds finished the day unchanged. Some additional reasons may be the recent rise in oil which could handcuff the Fed from pivoting, huge supply of Treasuries hitting the market over the next couple of quarters, and uncertainty over the government shutdown. 

In terms of fixed income performance, short-duration assets are outperforming, while long-duration assets are hitting new lows. Many strategists are now saying that yields will rise further with the 10Y going past 5%. 

The contrarian case is that the Fed is close to the end of its tightening cycle and that the economy is finally starting to show signs of contraction. Thus, investors should buy on the dip to take advantage of these elevated yields.

Finsum: Fixed income and equities both performed poorly in Q3. For fixed income, here are some of the factors behind the weakness.

Many contrarian investors are certainly interested in buying the dip in REITs given the low valuations, generous yields, and upside in the event of a Fed pivot. Further, many components of the real estate market remain healthy such as healthcare and industrials. However, there are some risks that investors need to consider.

There are secular problems in areas like retail and office buildings due to oversupply, while there have also been significant changes in people’s behavior, affecting demand. Additionally, investors should be aware that every bear market results in a handful of value and yield traps which become plagued by balance sheet and liquidity issues especially in high-rate environments.

Value traps are situations in which stocks look attractive by conventional metrics, however these low valuations are a reflection that the market isn’t optimistic about the company’s prospects. Similarly, ‘yield traps’ are when yields look attractive, but the market is expecting a dividend cut as current payout ratios are not sustainable. 

For investors interested in REITs, they must prioritize quality and strong financials. This is especially true in the current situation where the path and trajectory of monetary policy remains highly uncertain. If rates do stay elevated for a long period of time, some REITs will go bankrupt, while many will have to pay their dividends in order to remain solvent. 

Finsum: REITs are attracting interest from contrarian investors, but here are some downside risks to consider.

A little more than 3 years ago, the SEC strengthened fiduciary rules with the passage of Reg BI, and this was also adopted by FINRA. According to a recent report from state regulators, brokerages are still struggling to comply with these new regulations.

In essence, Reg BI ensures that any recommendations made by a broker have to be offered impartially along with an explanation of any alternatives. The purpose of these rules is to ensure that there is no conflict between a broker and the client without necessarily imposing the full fiduciary obligation of RIAs. 

The North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) reviewed broker compliance efforts and found middling results especially given that 3 years have passed. Additionally, the SEC and FINRA have stepped up enforcement efforts this year.  According to the group, there remains room for improvement especially as many brokers remain uncertain about the rule and its application to products like annuities, leveraged products, private placements, or other alternative investment products. 

Many firms are creating their own protocols regarding compliance and spending more time on understanding their clients’ risk tolerance and goals before providing recommendations. However, the group also found that many brokerages are too lax especially when it comes to providing disclosures and alternative recommendations. 

FinSum: The North American Securities Administrators Association conducted an audit of brokerage to see how Reg BI compliance efforts are going. 

REITs are in the midst of another leg lower and have effectively wiped out their gains from May and July with a 9% decline over the past six weeks. Year to date, the sector is down by 7% while it was up as much as 9% at its highest point in the year as measured by the Vanguard Real Estate ETF. This follows even steeper, double-digit losses in 2022.

In recent months, the weakness of the long-end of the Treasury curve has hit all types of yield-generating assets like REITs and dividend-paying stocks. Fed fund futures markets are downgrading the chances of rate cuts in 2024 while extending the duration that rates will remain at these levels. There is even increased chatter about how the Fed’s terminal rate must even go higher in order to truly stamp out inflation.

It’s a double-edged sword for REITs as the bulk of the sector continues to deliver impressive financial results with defaults remaining low especially in areas with strong fundamentals like healthcare and industrials. Yet, the stocks are unlikely to rally as long as rates remain elevated at these levels even despite attractive yields.

Finsum: REITs are in the midst of another leg lower and falling to new annual lows due to an uptick in inflationary pressures and the Fed coming out more hawkish than expected.

Bringing home the bacon.

Before taking their talent to UBS Wealth Management, a five person Connecticut team was grinding, managing $700 million in Greenwich, according to a recent announcement, reported advisorhub.com. The team had been at Merrill Lynch.

Also bidding Merrill adieu was John Foley, who managed $340 million in client assets. He landed at RBC Wealth Management, the announcement indicated.

In terms of recruitment, it seems Merrill’s been a favorite target of UBS. That includes a group of 18 in Columbia, South Carolia. A total of $2.6 million was managed by the team. 

In other industry activity, LPL Financial scored a group of finance advisors with $260 million in client assets, according to investmentnews.com. Specializing in retirement programs for schools, universities and hospitals, known as 403(b) plans, the group had previously been at Valic Financial Advisors Inc.

“We specialize in financial education and breaking down complex financial situations to a place where clients can better understand and be more comfortable with their decisions,” said financial advisor Angelo Burns in a statement. He’d been at Valic since 2011.