According to Russell Investments, the outlook for active fixed income looks quite attractive in 2023. They see opportunities to outperform benchmarks due to market and trading inefficiencies, index construction, and a volatile macro environment due to the lack of clarity around the Fed’s hiking schedule.

Compared to active equity funds, they see more opportunity for alpha in active fixed income for a variety of reasons. A major one is that fixed income indices are constructed with thousands of securities, often with different durations, coupons, and covenants. For astute managers, this can create opportunities to uncover value especially amid rating changes, new issues, and rebalancing by indexes. 

Another favorable factor is that many participants in the fixed income market are not focused on maximizing returns. Instead, there are forced buyers of fixed income due to capital requirements like insurance companies and banks. Further, central banks remain active in these markets as well, and they telegraph their intentions well in advance. 

Finally, there are simply more inefficiencies in fixed income as the vast bulk continue to be traded over-the-counter which leads to less price transparency and wider bid-ask spreads. 

Finsum: Russell Investments sees opportunity for investors in active fixed income funds due to more inefficiencies, less transparency, and more opportunities to uncover value..

Be a pal, huh, and give it a little elbow room. Fueled by institutions and financial advisors intent on seeking to tailor traditional indexes to meet the preferences of beneficiaries, direct indexing’s growing – and quickly – according to al-cio.com.

While direct indexing isn’t exactly new to the rodeo, its use has been spurred by current day computing power, according to a report by Jason Kephart, Morningstar’s director of multi-asset ratings, and his team.

Now, keep in mind, it’s not only your clients with the greatest wealth and complex investment portfolios who should be riding the direct indexing bandwagon, according to Randy Bullard, global head of wealth at Charles River Development, reported investmentnews.com.

“I think every financial advisor should be accessing direct indexing for their taxable client accounts,” Bullard said at the recent ETF Exchange conference in Miami.

“A direct indexing solution is uniquely designed to catch money in transition, and it’s suitable for all types of investors,” he said. “That’s the transition the industry is starting to go through. Once you conquer the operational complexities of direct indexing, it becomes a broad market solution.”

Last year, transitions among financial advisors lost a little ground, according to Investnews.com, reported linkedin.com.

But, tada, independent broker-dealers picked up almost 1,000 advisors in 2023.

The morale of the story? The volume of transitions is secondary; in the world of recruitment, what reigns supreme is lassoing top producers capable of expanding the business.

Up to date technology’s one way snag advisors.

One word to capture technology’s role in drawing fresh talent: “significant,” according to Jim Frawley, CEO and founder of Bellwether.

“Good technology is a game changer and committing to the tech of the future will be very attractive to those being recruited,” said Frawley. “This includes adopting certain aspects of AI and automation and at least being open to investigating other opportunities to free up time and elevate them. Advisors today are looking at tech to make their offering more attractive and substantial. Tech is also becoming their biggest competitor.”

And you might say recruiting pays off.

For example, leveraging its organic recruiting initiatives, during this year’s first quarter, Cetera Financial Group layered on nearly $3 billion in assets under administration, according to thinkadvisor.com.

In a recent Bloomberg article, Katherine Greenfield discussed the growing popularity of triple-leveraged bond ETFs. It’s somewhat surprising given that the bond market is coming off its most volatile year in 2022 in decades given the challenges posed by rising rates and sky-high inflation. 

Further, bond investors tend to be more conservative and favor the asset class, because it is less volatile than equities. Similarly, there has been an uptick on call and put buying on fixed income ETFs as well. To compare, there were 827,000 contracts traded on the iShares 20+Year Treasury Bond ETF in 2013, while there have been more than 2.2 million contracts traded on the same ETF this year.  

Overall, there are 15 leveraged fixed income ETFs, listed in the US. Total assets have climbed to $3.5 billion with the largest being the 20-Year Treasury Bull 3x which provides exposure to longer-term Treasuries and uses derivatives to track its underlying index. So far, this ETF has already seen $720 million in inflows, nearly eclipsing last year’s total of $783 million. According to Greenfield, the inflows into leveraged fixed income ETFs are likely due to retail traders, while the spike in options activity can be attributed to institutional investors.

Finsum: Leveraged fixed income ETFs are experiencing massive inflows, while options activity on fixed income ETFs is also soaring. . 

According to research from the Indiana University Kelley School of Business, the current strength in real estate may prove to be transitory. Currently, the housing market has remained resilient despite higher rates due to a demographic bulge and low inventory of available homes. 

However, Indiana University’s research indicates that demographic-driven demand is at a peak. Coupled with low supply, this is likely to drive prices higher in the near-term. However, there is likely to be long-term slowing in demand due to slower population growth and an aging population, barring an unforeseen surge in immigration or household formation.

Additionally, baby boomers are likely to start downsizing, while lower fertility rates also mean that demand for housing will be structurally less. Due to the pandemic and increase in remote work, there was a surge in household formation that exceeded population growth over the last couple of years. This trend is also unsustainable given demographic realities. 

The rise in mortgage rates has also artificially constrained supply as many would-be sellers are not selling due to locking in low rates. Yet, this is simply ‘pent-up’ supply that will be released into the market once rates decline or through the passage of time. 

Finsum: Real estate has continued to hold up well despite deceleration in economic growth and higher rates. However, this state of affairs looks unsustainable in the longer-term.