(New York)

Bank stocks have been heavy maligned by investors since COVID erupted. Several bank indexes, like the KBW, are down significantly on the year. KBE, a popular bank ETF is down over 30% on the year versus a small gain for the S&P 500. Ultra-low interest rates and loan losses are the big factors weighing on banks, but within the latter could be the spark of a rally. Banks have been setting aside tens of billions of Dollars in loan loss reserves, and seem to have been very bearish in their allocation of said reserves. Such reserves are also understood to likely have peaked at the end of Q2. That means that if loan losses aren’t as bad as forecast, some of those billions will likely be allowed to flow into the profit category for banks, allowing great earnings reports which could prompt a rally.

FINSUM: Banks are play on the recovery and can be had very cheaply. Additionally, this loan loss reserve aspect creates a nice catalyst for why a rally would start.

(New York)

The real estate space—at least parts of it—have been red-hot since COVID began. Residential real estate in particular has done well, as the fall in interest rates has sent mortgage issuance surging. One area of residential that you might want to stay away from, however, is apartments. Investors have been shying away from the sector. For instance, the FTSE Nareit Equity Apartments index is down 21% to-date. The big fall comes despite landlords saying rent collections are strong. The reason why seems to be the big rent reductions in coastal cities. Landlords in New York, San Francisco etc have had to drop rents by 15% or more to keep tenants and attract new ones, and that figure doesn’t even price-in other incentives, like months of free rent.

FINSUM: Our view here is that COVID will likely lower demand for urban apartments, since the pandemic highlighted some of the weaknesses of densely populated buildings. However, occupancy overall seems likely to stay strong.

(Washington)

While it has not been nearly as tumultuous as the first time around, the DOL 2.0 rule-making and approval process has already been rocky. There was a great deal of upsettedness over the short comment period. So much so that the DOL reversed course and offered a public hearing to gather more opinions. That was held this week. However, the DOL says no further public hearings or comment period will be extended (despite previously mentioning this possibility). Accordingly, it is looking very much like a rule will be brought forth ahead of the election, significantly in advance of where the timeline looked to be even a few weeks ago.

FINSUM: The DOL is really pushing the pace here. It seems like this might get on the books before the election, but it would still be quite easy for Biden to undo if he takes office.

(New York)

Despite the volatility of the last couple of days, the markets actually got some good economic news today. As usual, the data is not perfect, but directionally, the unemployment numbers suggest the underlying economy is improving. The unemployment rate in August was 8.4%. That marks the first reading under 10% since before the pandemic. The economy added 1.4m jobs overall. The only fly in the ointment is that this is the third straight month that the number of jobs added has been falling, a sign that the recovery could be losing momentum.

FINSUM: The reality is we are not just going to immediately pop back to January 2020’s economy. The fact that well over a million jobs were added in a very tumultuous month is a good indication that the recovery is on track.

(New York)

The muni market is doing great, at least on paper that is. Muni bonds have seen an absolutely furious rally over the last few months, which has driven yields to the lowest level since the 1950s. However, many municipalities have huge budget deficits, so the trick is to buy prudently. Eaton Vance published a piece with a state by state analysis of financial health, since the pain of tax revenue losses is not spread evenly. There are multiple ways to look at the info. The states who will see a 20%+ fall in revenue include: Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Missouri, New York, Alaska, Maine, West Virginia, Louisiana, and New Jersey. The top ten states for creditworthiness (meaning the most creditworthy) according to Eaton Vance are Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, Utah, Nebraska, North Dakota, Tennessee, Iowa, Virginia, and Minnesota.

FINSUM: New York and New Jersey are the most alarming ones on this list, since they are seeing big revenue falls and were already in quite poor financial condition. Illinois is obviously troubling too, as it is dead last in creditworthiness and likely to see a 13%+ fall in revenue.