(New York)

PIMCO, perhaps the most famous bond investor in the world, has just published a piece covering their view of where yields are headed. Their conclusion is that they do see the risk for rates rising as the US budget deficit grows and the economy strengthens, but that on the whole they are not too concerned about a big jump. Their view is best summarized in their own words, “Nevertheless, we believe powerful forces are working against a permanent increase in the trajectory of economic growth in the U.S., including the aging population, productivity trends, sovereign indebtedness, credit growth, and an imbalance between savings and investments”.

FINSUM: Our readers will have noticed that this view exactly matches what we have been saying about bond yields.

(Washington)

A couple of weeks ago we ran a piece quoting the SEC saying that it was trying to get advisors who had violated client disclosure rules to come forward themselves. The promise was that if they voluntarily came forward they would be treated with a much lighter hand. Well, the SEC has showed the other side of that coin this week, saying “Those of you who counsel investment advisors, we hope you will counsel them to participate in the program … If not, we promise that if we find them later we will punish them more severely”.

FINSUM: The SEC is really going to throw its weight around on this issue and it seems like advisors who have broken the rules would be well advised to come forward.

(New York)

One of the financial industry’s most astute crisis callers has just told Barron’s that she thinks we are in for another financial crisis. Sheila Bair, former head of the FDIC, has successfully called the Enron scandal and the subprime crisis, and now she sees another one looming. The context is that Trump and the White House are leading the charge for less bank regulation, which Bair sees as crazy given this point in the cycle. According to her, “To loosen capital now is just crazy. When we get to a downturn, banks won’t have the cushion to absorb the losses. Without a cushion, we will have 2008 and 2009 again.”.

FINSUM: We are not supportive of too much loosening of bank regulation. Banks have been very profitable since the Crisis, and it is not as if the current regulatory paradigm is over-constraining them

(San Francisco)

In what looks like a continuation of the recent meltdown of the Wells Fargo brand, a new scandal has come to light. The company is having several senior executives resign as a new Justice Department investigation is underway into bad practices in its wealth management unit. The accusations surround overcharging customers and inappropriate advice to wealth management clients.

FINSUM: Who knows how big this one might blow up? The scandal in its core banking business had not really affected the wealth management unit so far, but that may change.

(Moscow)

US-Russia relations, already on the rocks, took a definitive turn for the worse yesterday. Using the Russian version of the state of the union address as a platform, Russian leader Vladimir Putin decided to use his speech to warn the US and the West to listen to Russia as it has bolstered its nuclear capabilities. In a nearly two-hour speech, Putin said “Efforts to contain Russia have failed, face it”. Putin highlighted new nuclear capabilities, such as cruise missiles with unlimited range. The speech was accompanied by videos of the weapon systems.

FINSUM: The rumor is that Putin did this more for internal political purposes than to actually antagonize the West. Hopefully that is the case.

(New York)

Rockefeller is a storied US name, but not exactly so in wealth management. That may be set to change as a new Rockefeller-branded wealth manager, Rockefeller Capital Management, has just launched with some high profile backing and executives. Industry star Greg Fleming, a former president at Merrill Lynch and former head of wealth and asset management at Morgan Stanley, is leading the young firm, which has its eye on getting $100 bn under management. The firm is backed by a Rockefeller family trust as well as a number of other investors.

FINSUM: The name alone will probably attract capital, but $100 bn is a lofty goal for a brand new wealth manager.

(New York)

So everyone knows that Bitcoin suffered a huge plunge earlier this year. The fall amounted to around 60% at its peak before stabilizing recently. However, what many are not aware of is how much total trading volume fell during the volatility. While stock market losses are often associated with increasing trading, that did not happen with bitcoin. Volume is stuck at about half its peak from December, and touched its lowest level in two years in February. This has many wondering if the currency is waning in popularity.

FINSUM: This piece was interesting to us because it contrasts with what you hear about the explosion in popularity of cryptos.

(Washington)

The markets have been running scared all week. The Dow has lost over a 1,000 points, and much of the concern seems to be centered on global trade. One of the key reasons why is that President Trump is planning to raise tariffs on steel and aluminum. Trump sees trade wars as “good, and easy to win”. This view has investors worried about a disruption to status quo global trading patterns.

FINSUM: So Trump’s quote was not fully reported by most, and actually reads “When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with, trade wars are good, and easy to win”. Frankly we think the US has gotten the raw end of many trade deals over the last few decades and can throw its weight around much more to get a better deal.

(New York)

All those worried that another bout of volatility is around the corner should definitely pay attention to Goldman’s latest announcement. The bank says stocks may drop 25% this year, but the call has one important caveat—Treasury yields would need to reach 4.5%. Goldman only thinks yields will rise to 3.25% by year-end, but a “stress test” scenario where they rise to 4.5% “would cause a 20 percent to 25 percent decline in equity price”, says Goldman’s research team. Some think stocks will rise until yields reach the 3.5 to 4% range.

FINSUM: Yields are not going to get anywhere close to that level unless the Fed goes crazy with hikes, which we highly doubt. There is a big pool of natural bond buyers in retirement age, and we think that will allow yields to rise only slowly.

(San Francisco)

Apple is set to release, not one, not two, but three new iPhones later this year. Bloomberg describes the phones this way, saying “the largest iPhone ever, an upgraded handset the same size as the current iPhone X and a less expensive model with some of the flagship phone’s key features”. The iPhone X has not sold as well as forecast, and there has been consumer pushback on price, which may have led to the change in lineup. “This is a big deal”, says a venture capitalist and Apple commentator, “When you have a measurable upgrade in screen size, people go to update their phone in droves. We saw that with the iPhone 6, and we think this is setting up to be a similar step up in growth”.

FINSUM: We think this is a smart strategy, but we are surprised that Apple is caving in on pricing.