Displaying items by tag: republicans
Twitter took a very big step in its ongoing confrontation with President Trump this week. Over the last couple of years, the social media site has taken some steps to block Trump tweets that were barred under its policies. However, yesterday it took what feels like a monumental step—it started putting warning signs and links on posts that it said contained misleading information. Trump has exploded in his response, saying he could shut down social media companies.
FINSUM: We are of two minds about this. On the one hand Twitter was founded as an alternative source of news and a way for people to express their opinions outside the filter that mainstream news provides. On the other hand, it does not seem right that various social media platforms are being used as unchecked fake-news propaganda machines by both parties.
New polls emerging show an interesting picture of how the November election may go. While Biden remains about 5 points ahead of Trump in national polls, what is more interesting is that he holds a 5-point lead in three of the most integral swing states—Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. That is critical because those are the states that trump won in 2016 in order to beat Hillary. If he doesn’t win those states this time around, the odds are very long for a Trump victory.
FINSUM: The state of the economy and the long lockdown seem to be weighing on Trump right now, but there is still six months to go, which is more than enough time for a big swing (in either direction).
Conservatives and investors, consider yourselves notified: Bernie Sanders could very well be the next president. Bernie is jumping in the Democratic race and now looks like the frontrunner after what looked like a failing campaign just a few months ago. Bloomberg is draining votes from Biden, which is helping Bernie. He is looking very good in the first three big contests of the Democratic primary, and it looks more likely than not that he will win the bid. He had a huge fundraising round in Q4, leading the democratic field. What made his dominance in fundraising so impressive was not just the size relative to the crowded race, but the fact that his average donation was only $20, showing the scale and intensity of his support.
FINSUM: We still think Bernie would falter against Trump in the main race, but his odds for getting the bid are improving.
The election may still be ten months away, but the whole year is likely to be framed by it, markets being no exception. With that in mind, Morgan Stanley has some advice for investors. The first thought they offer is that in this case, being reactive is probably better than being proactive. If you reflect on 2016, everyone thought that a Trump victory would hurt stocks. The exact opposite happened. In this case, don’t assume a Democrat victory would be bad. Accordingly, it may be wise to wait until the election and then allocate as seems fit at that time. The other thing to bear in mind is that a Democratic sweep could be surprisingly good for stocks. According to Morgan Stanley, ““We would expect that a Democratic sweep in 2020 could deliver the greatest impulse to the economy” because of its greater odds of bringing a fiscal stimulus than when the government is divided between parties.
FINSUM: We really like this line of reasoning from MS.
This week the House voted to impeach president Trump. But in a little known technicality, he is not formally impeached until the House speaker hands over the impeachment to the Senate to hold its trial. House speaker Pelosi is dragging her feet on doing so in an effort to get the Senate to run the kind of trial the Democrats think is fair. In response, Trump himself is demanding an immediate trial, with Senate leader McConnell mocking the Democrats for their previous urgency on impeachment coupled with their stalling strategy now.
FINSUM: Whether you are on the right or the left, the delay by Pelosi does not look good as it is a contradiction of the previous urgency.