Displaying items by tag: recession

Wednesday, 04 May 2022 17:36

This is the Best Recession-Hedged Sector

Recession panic is rampant and over four-fifths of the US think the economy is going to turn into a recession in 2022 according to a CNBC poll. The rising inflation is the primary concern and a major factor give how well other area of the economy are performing. As a result, investors and hedge funds are turning to mid-cap stocks to prepare for the worst. Capri Holdings Limited is being held by over 40 hedge funds and carries an attractive P/E ratio of 14.23 for many investors. Next up is Valvoline Inc. which has seen its sales boom as it expanded into EV. Finally, nearly 50 hedge funds are holding luxury accessory company Tapestry Inc. and have almost $900 million in investments there.


FINSUM: Stable stocks could provide some recession cushion if things turn for the worst.

Published in Eq: Midcaps
Monday, 02 May 2022 20:10

The Looming Bond Collapse

The IMF has warned investors that there are growing concerns about an emerging market debt crisis. There is anxiety that sluggish growth, higher interest rates, and surging inflation will hurt developing economies much more severely than developed ones. They will be disproportionately affected because highly indebted countries will have a dip in their investment and suffocate their currencies. These concerns aren’t new and emerged at the start of the pandemic, but this swell seems different. The Fed responded by pumping trillions into the economy in 2020 and they are doing the exact opposite now. Additionally, war and other risks are heightened now with Russia-Ukraine’s escalation.


Finsum: Investors searching for yield should be wary of emerging market bond funds given unprecedented risk levels.

Published in Bonds: Total Market
Wednesday, 27 April 2022 19:08

Goldman Says Makes a Big Call on a Recession

Goldman Sachs released their latest economic forecast and predict the U.S. will grow at its second-highest rate in over 15 years. The 3.1% prediction would only be outpaced by the K-shaped recovery in 2021. Moreover, they said there is a lower risk of a recession in the next year than the rest of Wall Street with about a 15% chance. Attributing much of the inflation to supply chain issues, Goldman seems to be leaning on the latest core PCE inflation numbers that the Fed cares most about which were on the decline. The biggest ongoing risks to the world economy are China and the continuing Russia-Ukraine war.


Finsum: Goldman believes the Fed can thread the needle and hit the soft landing that many say is impossible, time will tell if they can.

Published in Eq: Total Market
Wednesday, 27 April 2022 19:07

These Junk Bonds are Best for the Downturn

Pick your favorite recession signal and there is a chance it's flashing the warning signs. Most are eyeing the 2-to-10 year yield curve which inverted in early April. Investors worried about the recession should turn to high-yield bonds, but specifically, those ‘sin’ goods are the best remedy for the recession. Alcohol and Tobacco are two of the best performing industries in the 12-months leading to a recession and the years after. Food and beverage, utilities, and healthcare all are great performers as well. The high yield bonds to avoid are telecommunications and retail shopping, as their returns can vary drastically.


Finsum: Junk bond yields are relatively high right now and less sensitive to Fed moves, high yield bonds are a potentially good alternative right now.

Published in Bonds: High Yield
Wednesday, 20 April 2022 19:45

Goldman Sachs Flashing Recession Warning

Goldman raised the odds of a recession to over one-third in the next two years. The tightening cycle and rate hikes are causing waves in markets and the Fed could bump the Federal Funds Rate eight times this year. Overall economic health in the G10 helps mitigate the possibility of a recession, but it's still a possibility. Experts are saying that the Fed has a narrow path for a soft landing if they want inflation to come down to 2% and keep unemployment from rising. There are signs that the economy is beginning to weaken as consumer confidence is wavering. Still, the stock market doesn’t seem to pricing in a recession, however, the experts on Wallstreet and financial services are beginning to prepare.


Finsum: Look to the yield curve for recession predictions its the best sign and its beginning to warn investors.

Published in Eq: Total Market
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