Displaying items by tag: private equity

JPMorgan issued its 28th annual Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions report, which provides long-term forecasts for various asset classes in addition to detailing risks and upside catalysts. One of the recommendations in its report is to add a 25% position to alternative investments which it believes will increase returns by 60 basis points on an annual basis while also reducing volatility. 

In terms of the 60/40 portfolio, JPMorgan is forecasting annual returns of 7% which is a slight decrease from last year’s forecast of 7.2% annual returns. Pulkit Sharma, JPMorgan’s head of real assets and alternative investment strategy, remarked, “The alternative asset classes are becoming more essential than optional in the broader 60/40 toolkit. Inflation is going to be more and more sticky, so you need more diversifiers and inflation-sensitive asset classes.” 

The bank also believes that investors need to seek out diversification especially, since it expects continued geopolitical uncertainty and volatility stemming from central bank decisions. Fixed income is simply not an effective diversifier in higher-inflation environments as evidenced by the last couple of years. Some of the alternative assets it recommends boosting diversification are real assets, hedge funds, and private credit. 

Finsum: In its annual long-term review and forecast of various asset classes, JPMorgan slightly reduced its expectation of long-term returns for a 60/40 portfolio and stressed the role of alternatives to boost returns and improve diversification.

Alternative investments can add value to portfolios by boosting returns and leading to increased diversification according to a recent UBS white paper on the subject. Within the category, it favors specialist credit hedge funds, macro hedge funds, secondaries in private equity, and specific types of private debt. However, it does note that investors should be aware that there is a tradeoff in terms of reduced liquidity. 

The firm recommends a 20% allocation and believes that it could lead to an annual increase of 50 basis points in the long term. It’s increasingly of interest given the asset class’s strong performance in 2022 when stocks and bonds both delivered double-digit, negative returns. In contrast, most diversified alternatives’ indices saw performance between -6% and +17%. In terms of forward returns, the bank forecasts return between 6% and 11% over a full business cycle.

In terms of specific strategies, UBS recommends specialist credit hedge funds which focus on differences between strong and weak companies. It also favors secondaries in private equities and notes some attractive discounts in the space. The bank also sees upside to private debt given that yields are around 12% with lower default risk than high-yield credit. 

Finsum: UBS is bullish on alternative assets. It believes that the asset class can boost returns while also increasing diversification. 

JPMorgan is looking for a partner to accelerate its push into private credit. Some current prospective partners include sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, endowments, and alternative asset managers, although it’s possible that the bank may ultimately go with multiple partners. 

Reportedly, the bank is looking to add to the $10 billion it’s already set aside for its private credit strategy. It believes that this additional capital will enable it to compete with other names more effectively in the space such as Blackstone, Apollo Global, and Ares as it would be able to make bigger deals. Additionally, there would be less balance sheet risk as the bank would originate the deals with its outside partner, providing the capital. In theory, this would allow for more scale to grow private credit revenue without additional risk. 

Due to banks dealing with an inverted yield curve and high rates, private credit has been taking market share away from other sources of capital like leveraged loans and high-yield bonds. Already, many of JPMorgan’s competitors like Barclays, Wells Fargo, and Deutsche Bank have launched their own efforts to build a presence in the private credit market, although each has its own strategy.

Finsum: JPMorgan, like many Wall Street banks, is looking to increase its presence in the private credit market. It’s currently in discussions with prospective partners to provide outside capital.

Companies with large amounts of debt approaching maturity are tapping the private credit industry for financing that may not be available through public markets. The latest example is PetVet, a veterinary hospital operator owned by KKR, which is looking to refinance more than $3 billion in loans. Other recent examples of companies include Hyland Software, Finastra, Cole Haan, and Tecomet which have raised a cumulative amount of $10 billion in the past few months. 

With private credit, companies are able to bypass traditional banks and access billions in loans. This is being facilitated by a surge of inflows into the asset class which is leading to funding for takeovers and to refinance debt. 

Another factor supporting the growth of private credit has been weakness in the syndicated loan market, where banks arrange financing and then sell the loans to other investors. Given that over the next 3 years, $350 billion of leveraged loans are set to mature, private credit will continue to be a necessary intermediary especially for companies with higher debt loads.   

Typically, private credit investors earn between 5 and 7% above benchmark rates which comes in at between 10.5% and 12.5%. In contrast, the average yield on B rated corporate bonds is 9.2%. 

Finsum: Private credit is playing an increasingly important role when it comes to providing financing for companies. Here are some of the major factors behind this shift. 

Earlier this year, the Carlyle Group was close to completing a $15 billion deal to takeover healthcare software company Cotiviti at $15 billion. However, the deal fell apart as Carlyle was unable to raise $3 billion from investors due to the yield of 12% being nearly equivalent to the return on equity. 

At first, many speculated that this was a Carlyle issue, but in hindsight, it’s an indication of the pressures faced by the private equity industry amid the highest rates in decades. Many of the strategies employed by private equity managers are simply not viable in a world with higher interest rates. 

As flows into new funds have slowed and pressure to refinance, private equity firms have started borrowing against assets to make dividend payments, while others are shifting away from making interest payments in cash. 

The industry still has $2.5 trillion in cash, and many dealmakers believe there will be some attractive opportunities to capitalize upon. Still, others believe that operators will have to adapt to a new environment and can no longer rely on the tailwind of falling rates which lifted asset prices higher, while keeping financing costs low. 

Finsum: Private equity is struggling amid higher rates. Here are some of the ways.