Displaying items by tag: insurers
It is a Bad Time to Buy Healthcare Stocks
The reality of the political environment in the US is making one thing very clear: it is a tentative time to buy or own healthcare stocks. While healthcare companies are currently performing well, the market is growing increasingly bearish about them, and with good reason. Democratic candidates have proposed an array of new national healthcare plans that all have degrees of disruption, some of them massive, to the status quo. That means the healthcare industry is facing a problem that is very hard to control and could cause extensive changes to their current operating paradigm.
FINSUM: Unless healthcare gets so beat up that it is worth taking a risk on the stocks just as a bet that the Democrats don’t win the election, it seems like there is asymmetric risk reward in the sector right now.
A Major Bear Market Warning Light is Flashing
Most of the indicators that the media is discussing at the moment have to do with a recession (e.g. an inverted yield curve). But today, there is an important one that speaks directly to a bear market—flows in pension funds, insurers, and sovereign wealth funds. There is a combination of factors happening which shows markets have reached the end of this cycle. On the one hand, pension funds and insurers are pulling money out of public markets in order to chase private investments (e.g. real estate and infrastructure). But at the same time, the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds are now pulling out of private market investments because there is too much money chasing too few deals. In other words, valuations have gotten too high everywhere and some of the world’s biggest investors are moving into cash.
FINSUM: When the world’s biggest investors are getting out of both public and private markets, it seems to indicate that the end of the market cycle is near. That said, this bull market has revived itself many times.