Displaying items by tag: gas

President-elect Trump has announced his intention to block new wind energy projects during his upcoming term, arguing that the industry relies heavily on subsidies to function. Known for his support of fossil fuels, Trump has appointed fracking executive Chris Wright as his Energy Secretary and emphasized policies favoring traditional energy sources. 

His opposition to wind power, which he has called unsightly and harmful to marine life, extends to plans for an immediate executive order to halt offshore wind production. Although renewable energy advocates predict that existing projects will continue despite the political shift, companies like RWE acknowledge potential delays in offshore wind timelines. 

Critics, including Sen. Ron Wyden, have warned that abandoning wind energy will raise electricity costs for families and reduce domestic energy output. Clean energy leaders stress the importance of a diversified energy strategy to meet the nation’s rising energy demands.

Finsum: These policy shifts are clearly going to affect market fundmentals over the next term, will there still be enough industry support to prop up ESG? To be determined.

Gasoline prices in the U.S. are projected to drop below $3 per gallon for the first time in over three years, offering relief to consumers grappling with inflation. Lower fuel costs are a positive sign for Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democrats as they head into the presidential election season.

 Analysts attribute the price decline to weaker fuel demand and falling oil prices, with national averages already decreasing from a year ago. Patrick De Haan from GasBuddy suggests prices will continue to fall as winter-grade fuels become available. 

Studies indicate that presidential approval ratings are often tied to gas prices, making this drop a potential boost for Harris’s campaign. However, global oil dynamics and events like Hurricane Francine could still impact prices.

Finsum: Inflation is still an ongoing issue heading into the election and gas prices are the center of the target.

China has firmly established itself as the third-largest gas market globally, trailing only the US and Russia, and surpassing the EU. As China’s gas demand grows, suppliers see it as increasingly significant compared to the declining European market. 

The EU’s dependency on foreign gas producers, with its push towards biogas and biomethane falling short, complicates its supply security. Despite EU's efforts, its domestic gas production continues to decline, increasing its reliance on imports, with spot LNG providing critical equilibrium between Asia and Europe. 

Europe faces high gas prices and volatility due to limited global production capacity and logistical constraints. Recent geopolitical events and sanctions, including Uniper’s termination of Russian gas contracts and the EU's 14th sanction package against Russia, further challenge Europe's gas supply dynamics.

Finsum: Natural gas will definitely see policy volatility due to the upcoming election, but for the meantime China is keeping demand high. 

Lower energy prices have provided some relief for consumers over the last few months. However, this could be changing with demand set to increase as we enter the start of driving season which is due to be exacerbated by refinery outages in many parts of the country.

Over the last month, gasoline prices are about 5% higher but still slightly down relative to last year at this point. Higher energy prices negatively impact consumer confidence and discretionary spending but also feed into inflationary pressures. In last month’s CPI report, higher energy prices was a major factor in the hotter than expected readings. Additionally, they have political implications given elections in November.

According to analysts, the situation is likely to get worse before its gets better. Gasoline inventories are lower than normal, following a 5.7 million barrels decline last week, and are now 3% below their average levels for this time of the year. Inventories could continue to be drained as refineries have been running below 87% capacity for the last 8 weeks. Adding to these issues is recent drone strikes on Russian refineries by Ukraine.

Finsum: Gasoline prices have been rising due to refinery issues. The situation is likely to get worse before it gets better as we enter summer driving season, and inventories have been drawn down more than expected. 

On March 15th, the International Energy Agency raised its estimate for global oil demand in 2023 by another 100,000 b/d as rebounding air traffic and pent-up Chinese demand push consumption to record highs. In its latest monthly oil report, the energy watchdog said it now sees global oil demand averaging 102.02 million b/d in 2023. That’s 2 million b/d higher than in 2022. The IEA estimates that gains will accelerate over the year, rising to 2.6 million b/d year on year in the fourth quarter, from 710,000 b/d in the current quarter. In the report, IEA stated, "Global oil demand growth started 2023 with a whimper but is projected to end the year with a bang .... Rebounding jet fuel use and a resurgent China will see an overall Q1-Q4 ramp-up of 3.2 million b/d, the largest relative in-year increase since 2010 with oil use surging to 103.2 million b/d in second-half 2023." The agency attributes the rise in demand to China's economic momentum, with rebounding February Purchasing Managers' Index data and robust air traffic demand. The IEA said Chinese mobility mostly stabilized after January's "remarkable bounce." It also added that Chinese air traffic with domestic flights is now well above pre-pandemic levels. Due to this, the IEA raised its estimate for Chinese jet/kerosene demand by 60,000 b/d.

Finsum:In its recent monthly oil market report, the International Energy Agency raised its estimate for global oil demand this year by another 100,000 b/d as rebounding air traffic and pent-up Chinese demand push consumption to record highs.