Displaying items by tag: food
You probably have not even registered it, but food prices have risen sharply since late last year. One big reason why this is going mostly unnoticed is that economists, and thus the media, like to report inflation with food and energy stripped out. According to Jefferies, “Almost unnoticed, broad food and agricultural prices have climbed vertically”. So the question is who will benefit, and luckily that is quite clear. Firstly, fertilizer companies tend to do well when food prices are high and are uncorrelated to other asset classes. And secondly, agricultural machinery is a big winner. The sector is already experiencing exceptional supply tightness, which is bullish for pricing. According to Barron’s “large tractor prices up roughly 20% year-over-year and small tractors up about 50%, on the back of significantly tighter inventories”.
FINSUM: Deere and AgCo seem like quite good buys given this backdrop.
Commodities are doing very well this year. Every big bank, including Goldman Sachs, thinks we may be starting a new commodities super cycle. The big question is exactly which commodities and who will be the big winners. Everything from food, to metals, to oil has been rising and this creates some clear winners, particularly producers of those commodities. That means a big windfall for countries like Saudi Arabia, Australia, and Chile, who are big net exporters of various raw materials. It is net importers that get hurt the worst, with an absolute behemoth—China—likely to suffer the most, as it is one of the largest buyers of commodities in the world. In fact, it almost single-handed drove the big commodities boom in the 2000s.
FINSUM: So the key here is picking the right emerging markets. Additionally, investors may want to double-think investing in oil, as production hikes could undermine prices quickly.
The early thinking about grocery stocks was that the big surge in demand at the start of the COVID lockdown was just a flash in the pan. However, as earnings and guidance is emerging from companies in the space (like General Mills), it is becoming apparent that demand for groceries because of a heightened preference for home cooking seems likely to stick around for a while.
FINSUM: We agree with the fundamental thesis here. Until we cure COVID, people are going to stay worried about public spaces, including restaurants. The trick to picking stocks is to understand where each company is getting its revenue. For instance, General Mills does a lot of sales through grocery stores so its stock is rising, but Molson Coors does a large share of its sales through bars and restaurants, so its stock is falling.
Restaurants are an area that don’t get much attention in the media, but can be a place where investors can find alpha. With that in mind, we wanted to run some analyst picks that choose the best food stocks. The three names are Dunkin Brands, McDonalds, and Yum! Brands. The case for Dunkin is that though the company has underperformed a little lately, they are poised for a rebound, especially with the new branding of just “Dunkin”.
FINSUM: McDonalds is the most interesting pick for us, as we admire the changes and leadership of the CEO and think updating the menu and the physical restaurants has and will continue to be successful.