Displaying items by tag: fixed income

2021 was an all-time year for active fixed income launches, and 2022 is looking to continue that pace. Capital Group just debuted another active fixed income ETF to capitalize on this financial trend. The Capital Group Core Plus Income ETF (CGCP) will seek a higher income return for a traditional bond fund and really seek to maximize total return. With a wide swath of debt available in their targets, they can invest over a third in below investment grade securities. This launch comes amid 5 other active equity fund launches for Capital Group. Overall investors are looking for more alpha return in their portfolios and are looking to active management to find it.

Finsum: Macro factors are pushing more investors into active bond funds, with increased interest and inflation risk core analysis is more effective than ever in fixed income.

Inflation and interest rate risks are two of the most prominent risks in the economy, and they are the reason so many are fleeing traditional fixed income. One place many investors are turning is to annuities, but how does interest rate risk affect annuities? For fixed annuities appreciating rates mean investors can get a better payout with the same premium and generally expand the offerings. For variable annuities, it's trickier as they are more tied to equity markets. If the Fed hikes too aggressively and markets respond adversely this could hurt variable rate products but if the stock market stays steady they won’t be under much pressure. As an income value proposition generally they both perform better than bonds in raising rates because higher yields (inflation and interest rates both moving) suppress bond prices directly.

FINSUM: Annuities have a lot of value in rising rates environments as an income product especially compared to government securities and CDs. 

There has been an explosion in active fixed income flows in the last year. The big drivers that are pushing investors in that direction are mainly macro, as the Treasury yields have risen (lowering bond values) and passive funds haven’t moved off them rapidly enough. The other big factor is that they have flat-out outperformed. Where active equity lagged their passive counterparts data shows that almost 9 in 10 active bond funds have outperformed in the intermediate range. Overall this drove the $350 billion influx in active fond funds last year. Additionally, there were tax advantages when it came to capital gains and this efficiency was prioritized by investors.

Finsum: It's clear that the information cycle in active equity is currently outpacing the ability to beat the market, but bonds' medium-term macro influence is more predictable for active management.

Investors have been flocking to strange corners of the fixed income market as pressures are rising from both the Fed and inflation. The latest place investors are finding relief is floating rate investment-grade corporate debt. Corporations were reluctant to create in the early stages of the pandemic to supply floating rate debt with yields near zero on government debt. However, there is a huge demand for floating-rate debt today, and large investment banks like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc. are all jumping into the investment-grade bond market. Floating rate risk allows investors to mitigate duration risk which with rate hikes pending is a potential threat.

Finsum: This could be just the start of the trend or there could be a lot more to come, but look for the less used avenues of the debt market to start to spark with fixed income in the place it's in.

Many investors are fretting over the rising bond yields which are sending their prices tumbling, but this could just be the tip of the iceberg. The aggregate bond index AGG has already fallen 3.9% and that's with the critical 10-year T-bill only rising to a 2% yield. If the 10-year hikes all the way up to its high of 3.25% in 2018 that could be a disaster. With inflation at a 40-year high that's a real possibility and any yield you are getting is all eaten away at. However, if inflation is temporary (caused by supply chains) or Fed pulls breaks fast enough then yields might be maxing out, and bond prices could turn around.

Finsum: Inflation expectations are remarkably low which means that investors are convinced either the Fed will credibly bring inflation down or as supply chains loosen that will bring inflation down. Markets are saying that bond risk is priced in.