Displaying items by tag: copper

Copper prices rose about 2% Wednesday after Freeport-McMoRan warned of major production losses from the suspension of its Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia following a deadly mud rush. 

Operations remain halted after two workers were killed and five remain missing, cutting Q3 copper and gold sales by about 4% and 6% versus prior estimates. The impact will be harsher in Q4, with PT Freeport Indonesia’s copper and gold output expected to be negligible compared with forecasts. 

Looking ahead, 2026 production could fall 35% below prior projections, with a full return to pre-incident levels unlikely before 2027. Freeport expects its Big Gossan and Deep MLZ mines to restart later this year, while Grasberg’s phased ramp-up begins in 2026, and it has declared force majeure with insurance recovery capped at $700 million. 

Finsum: The disruption at one of the world’s largest copper mines comes as global supplies remain tight, further lifting copper prices.

(New York)

Commodities have been doing great this year. The big rise in demand coupled with weak supplies because of COVID have led to a surge in prices. However, one bright spot—metals—might have some trouble looming on the horizon. There is increasing speculation that the US may scrap pennies. If that happens, it could put a dent in the copper and zinc markets. This dent would not only come from a lack of new demand, but the fact that pennies would be taken out of circulation and recycled. This would amplify the effect by boosting supply to the system and lowering demand for newly-mined metal.

FINSUM: This might have a strong psychological effect even though the total quantity of zinc from pennies accounts for less than 4% of total annual output.

(New York)

You have probably seen a few articles floating around, but the last several weeks have really hammered it home: we are at the precipice of a new commodities supercycle. The pandemic brought on a huge fall in commodities prices because of a tumble in demand. But as the economy is heating back up, demand is jumping and supply is not matching it. Raw materials demand has surged across the board. Most have been paying attention to oil prices, but check out others like copper and metals. Goldman sees the dawn of a new decade-long demand surge akin to what happened between 2000 and 2010, when the rise of emerging markets/BRICS drove huge raw materials consumption. This time around Goldman says that the green industrial revolution will create a “capex cycle” on part with what happened to emerging markets in the 2000s.

FINSUM: The bank also argues that social and tax policies that are favoring income redistribution to poorer households is bullish for commodities since those households tend to spend a higher percentage of it.

(New York)

There is a lot of focus right now on how great an impact coronavirus will have on the stock market, both locally and abroad. So far it has impacted stocks on certain days, with the effect immediately disappearing soon after. The reality is, however, that coronavirus’ impact may be uneven, with some sectors getting hit badly and others being fine, even as benchmark indexes might seem largely unhurt. We have already written about how luxury retail is hurting because of a lack of Chinese tourists, but now it is looking like commodities might be deeply wounded across the board. China is a huge driver of commodity markets as its demand fuels the market. And with the economy so shut down, commodity demand is going to drop off a cliff.

FINSUM: What is most worrying is that commodity prices don’t seem to reflect this at all, which means they are at risk of plummeting.

(Houston)

For those paying attention, the metals market is sending some very worrying signs. Copper and other metals have been going through a rough patch, but yesterday seemed to really spell doom. Copper plunged into a bear market, zinc plummeted, and even gold took a big hit despite the panic across markets. Industrial commodities are a good bellwether for economic activity, and while the markets are partly plunging on worries over the Chinese economy, the big drops signal that the whole world could be in for a recession.

FINSUM: We are growing increasingly concerned about the message that metals markets are sending. The big drop across the board in industrial commodities is quite worrying. Hopefully it is a short-term overreaction to the trouble in emerging markets.