Displaying items by tag: bear market

(New York)

While most banks try to stay bullish on market, Bank of America just couldn’t help but get gloomy this week, very gloomy. The bank says that record high prices and placid volatility mean a big correction looms. They believe the market is underpricing the risk of a Fed policy change, and when that comes, it will hit like a hammer. They even gave a name to these bouts of volatility/correction: “fragility shocks”. According to the bank, “We believe the US equity market is underpricing the risks of a looming tapering cycle. After all, the equity market has feasted on record monetary support post-COVID, and the Fed's outlook remains impaired by the extreme uncertainty in the macro forecasts on which they base their decisions”.

FINSUM: This unfortunately makes quite good sense. However, the opposing force here is that the buy-the-dip mentality is strong right now, which could provide support in any short-term sell-off.

(New York)

Usually big Wall Street banks are pretty moderate in their outlooks, and they are mostly bullish in general. Well, Bank of America Merrill Lynch didn’t hold back this week when they said the S&P 500 was at risk of a 16.5% tumble in the near term. The bank said that it expects the S&P 500 to fall 20 to 30 bp for every basis point increase in the ten-year Treasury. The bank thinks yields will rise 55 bp by the end the year, implying an up to 16.5% tumble in stocks. The bank says valuations are overstretched by almost every metric.

FINSUM: The bank did point out three sectors it felt were safer, which are energy, communications services, and health care.

(New York)

Any seasoned market veteran will tell you that today’s hottest thing might very well turn into the epicenter of tomorrow’s crisis. Tech stocks led to the Dotcom crash, structured credit led to the Financial Crisis. Now ask yourself, what is the hottest product of the moment? The answer is simple: ESG stocks. ESG is nebulous as an asset class since it crosses many boundaries, but in reality, a lot of the new ESG AUM has flowed directly into large cap tech stocks. This means that a lot of the buying going on in large cap tech is just de facto ESG buying.

FINSUM: ESG is a surging category and a lot of Dollars are flowing in. Since the term and its actual meaning are still vague, a lot of the money flows into tech, which is almost universally seen as ESG friendly. When might the music stop?

(New York)

By any reasonable measure, high yield bond markets look very scary right now. The way that yields have plummeted, the way that covenants have weakened, and the general ease of accessing credit are all reminiscent of 2005. Spreads over Treasuries have fallen to just 300 bp. A year ago they were at 600 bp. Companies have successfully weakened investor protections in new issues without penalty, and crucially, default rates will likely fall below 1% this year. The picture was the same in 2005.

FINSUM: By the Crisis, default rates hit 14% and high yield investors got killed. However, a big correction in high yield would take a catalyst. Is it a sooner-than-expected Fed pullback?

(New York)

The post-pandemic run has been marked by staggeringly low volatility and all-time highs in both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. However…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site.