Displaying items by tag: Commodities
The polar vortex sweeping across the south has left many American’s without energy, but investors are not as powerless...see the full story on our partner Magnifi's site
Gold had a very strong 2020 as investors feared chaos from the pandemic. See the full story here on our partner Magnifi's site
When you think of oil, you don’t normally think of an industry that would gain from a big win by Democrats in an election. But as it happens, oil could very well gain if Democrats sweep the presidency and congress. The reason why is slightly perverse, but that makes it no less relevant. The concept is that Democrats would be bring new regulation around fracking; specifically, regulations that limit new drilling but allow existing projects. What this would mean is a steady rise in prices as inventory becomes constrained as the recovery proceeds. For example, Morgan Stanley is forecasting almost a 100% gain in natural gas prices next year.
FINSUM: Oil and gas are a physical supply and demand market, and if regulations keep supply in the ground, then prices will rise.
It took almost ten years, but gold finally just passed its nominal all-time high (set way back in 2011 during the European debt crisis). That is not a good sign for the market. Gold is rising because of increasing worries about a prolonged economic downturn caused by a renewed COVID second wave. Gold hit $1,944 per troy ounce today, cruising past its previous high of $1,921 per ounce. “Gold has finally come on to Main Street as an asset people actually need to have”, says the CEO of Sprott, a precious metals specialist.
FINSUM: Gold has been helped by fears over the economy, and the fact that rates are near zero, which flatters zero-yielding gold.
There is a lot of focus right now on how great an impact coronavirus will have on the stock market, both locally and abroad. So far it has impacted stocks on certain days, with the effect immediately disappearing soon after. The reality is, however, that coronavirus’ impact may be uneven, with some sectors getting hit badly and others being fine, even as benchmark indexes might seem largely unhurt. We have already written about how luxury retail is hurting because of a lack of Chinese tourists, but now it is looking like commodities might be deeply wounded across the board. China is a huge driver of commodity markets as its demand fuels the market. And with the economy so shut down, commodity demand is going to drop off a cliff.
FINSUM: What is most worrying is that commodity prices don’t seem to reflect this at all, which means they are at risk of plummeting.