Eq: Total Market
(New York)
One of the big outcomes of the huge rout to end last year was that stock pickers had reportedly gone back to doing what they did best—picking individual stocks based on fundamental value, signaling a diversity of holdings. However, in aggregate, that view appears to be hogwash, as new data shows that institutional equity ownership in stocks is at its highest point in years. Goldman Sachs follows this data and tracks how many companies are among the 50 most owned by hedge funds and mutual funds alike. Right now it is 13, which is the highest level since 2017. Industrial and tech stocks were the most held.
FINSUM: The most concentrated stock holdings are, the more risk there is for steep falls in those names.
(New York)
Stocks are in an interesting place right now. The year is off to a feverish start and momentum is strong, yet some are worried the rally has been too fast and that shares are vulnerable. Barron’s ran an article arguing the bull case for stocks. The core bull argument is that the economy is not as late cycle as many currently fear. While some think we are the very end, data and history suggest returns could be good. Based on a combination of economic signs (e.g. purchasing managers index) versus the recent market decline, stocks look poised for a great year (they are already well on their way). Macro indicators show the economy is still mid cycle, not at the end, such as private investment’s share of GDP.
FINSUM: We think the economy may be mid-cycle, but only if the Fed lets it be that way. The Fed can manipulate the economic cycle significantly, and markets generally follow.
(New York)
New economic data was released on the US economy and fourth quarter growth was a mixed bag. The economy expanded at 2.6% annualized in the fourth quarter, a decent number that exceeded estimates, but did nothing to change the overall downward direction of the economy. Consumer spending slowed in the quarter. The economy expanded at 4.2% in Q2 2018, 3.4% in Q3 2018, and 2.6% in Q4 2018.
FINSUM: The trend downward is clear on many levels. That said, this should have been expected as the benefits from the tax cuts continue to fade. We think the economy is in the late stages of its expansion, but so long as the Fed stays quiet, we could drift on solidly for a while.
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(New York)
If that headline seems like a head scratcher, it is meant to be. Barron’s ran a curious article today which argues that weak forecasts for earnings might actually be a good catalyst for higher stock prices. That seems to defy logic, but would be a continuation of a trend that has been in place for a few years. When companies broadcast weak earnings to come, it tends to make investors nervous, leading to oversold conditions. As you might expect, oversold markets tend to lead to bull runs.
FINSUM: This is a tenuous relationship, but when that has been apparent for the last few years. Stocks do like to climb a wall of worry, and this would be a good wall.
(New York)
Stocks are off to a very strong start this year, but it is hard to remember a time that they looked so vulnerable. Investors may be happy with the 10%+ gains in the S&P 500, but the reality is that stocks could nosedive at any moment. In a sign of how grave the risk is, we challenge you to ask yourself—what is a risk that could make stocks plunge 10% in a day? We are willing to bet 90% of you said “the Fed suddenly restarting hikes”. The core of this rally has largely been predicated on the Fed suddenly reversing course, letting investors breathe a sigh of relief that the central bank won’t hike the economy into recession.
FINSUM: The truth is that the Fed could reverse its position at any moment, which would probably cause a big downturn in markets. That said, we don’t think they will do anything so drastic.
(New York)
Investors seem to have stopped worrying about it, but a recession is still in the cards. Ever since the Fed backed off, the market seems to have forgotten that we are likely at the very end of an economic cycle. However, most economists are differing from investors, as the majority are still calling for a recession by 2021. That is the view of over 75% of US business economists, with most still saying the Fed will continue hiking this year. 52% of those surveyed said a recession would start this year or next.
FINSUM: It is interesting to see how out-of-touch economists and investors are. A recession by 2021 sounds very reasonable to us, but the Fed continuing to hike this year does not.