(Seattle)

The biggest aircraft maker in the country just put out a dire prediction (although not a surprising one)—that there will be a major airline bankruptcy this year. The airline industry has been wounded as never before, with demand falling more than 90% since this time last year. Most analysts think it will take until the end of year for demand to even rise to 50% of the year prior. Credit default swaps—a proxy for the odds a company will default—are very high right now. For instance, markets are putting a 54% chance that American Airlines defaults.

FINSUM: This is an odd comment from a company that is talking about its biggest clients. It speaks volumes.

(Washington)

Smaller broker-dealers around the nation are grossly underprepared for the forthcoming Regulation Best Interest. In early April, the SEC decided not to extend the implementation date of the rule because of COVID, which means all firms will need to be ready by June 30th. However, most small broker-dealers are so focused just trying to stay in business, that most are delaying any actions that will help help for the rule. The SEC has said it will take circumstances into account when enforcing the rule.

FINSUM: One of the big issues besides COVID, is that there is a high degree of complacency about the new rule because many think “I prepared for the DOL rule, so we should be covered for this”. However, there are some important distinctions with this rule (e.g. retail investor vs retail customer), and many could find themselves in hot water.

(New York)

Anybody who has paid even scant attention to the market over the last eight weeks has been shocked by what it has done. After dropping 35% from peak, the market has rallied back by almost as many percent over the course of the last 5 weeks. Now, Societe Generale says the comeback is just too fast and defies all previous bear market recoveries. Rebounds from bear market lows tend to be long slogs, with gyrations upward and downward as the market moves slowly higher. This recovery has been a lightning bolt as the market almost sprints higher. However, UBS argues that this recovery could be different, saying “This is a policy-induced downturn, and the speed and structure of the recovery could follow a different route from previous downturns”.

FINSUM: The thing that is really keeping this recovery afloat is the extraordinary monetary and fiscal stimulus that has been injected into the economy. That said, it is likely going to take a LONG time to get back to where we were on February 15th 2020, so a plateau or fall in markets does not seem unlikely.

(New York)

We are headed towards Great Depression like unemployment, yet the market is rallying. What gives? That is a question everyone is asking themselves. We have already far exceeded Great Recession era unemployment levels and are quickly heading higher. Over 20m Americans lost their jobs in April and more than 33m have lost jobs since the start of the pandemic. The unemployment rate is just under 15%, and most analysts think it will get north of 20%, putting it on part with the Great Depression. Mnuchin himself said we may hit 25%.

FINSUM: We do not think the market has ever had to navigate such a difficult situation in recent memory. On the one hand we are dealing with the worst economy in a century. On the other, there is a temporary nature to this downturn (because it is self-imposed) and the government is doing a lot to stimulate the economy.

(New York)

One of the aspects of this bear market that has really alarmed investors is the speed with which the market has rallied from its lows. Huge gains of well over 35% have shocked investors into feeling like indexes are bound to fall again. In some sense that sentiment makes sense since it has happened before, such as in the dotcom bubble. However, according to BlackRock, it is absolutely time to go risk-on, but with a twist. The asset manager says that sovereign bonds have very little upside or protection to offer right now, so instead investors should put their capital into credit and higher-quality equities. “Over the next six to 12 months, we favor credit over equities given bondholders’ preferential claim on corporate cash flows and prefer an up-in-quality stance in equities”.

FINSUM: We particularly like the argument about sovereign bonds not offer much right now. With central banks already at their zero lower bound and sovereigns priced very highly, there is just not much to gain and plenty to lose.