(Washington)

Janet Yellen shocked the markets recently in an interview where she praised the potential of higher inflation…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(New York)

The municipal bond demand has spiked to a near all-time high. Prices are indicative of that, but…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(Miami)

The latest CPI numbers have made a splash once again as prices make some of the fastest paces in growth since…see the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(Washington)

Any advisor has likely read about Biden’s new tax proposals on the “wealthy”. We use quotes on that term because many of them would also apply to middle class families. One such policy which would hurt most heirs is Biden’s plan for taxing family businesses. As most know, Biden is planning to tax inherited assets on their original basis (not the basis at death). This will cause a big spike in taxes for many, especially in the case of inheriting businesses, as the basis of most businesses is zero dollars, since many are founded by parents and left to children. Consider an example of a business which Ernst & Young presented in a report. “…someone started a wine distribution company two decades ago. The business initially had no market value. When that founder dies in 2025, his daughter inherits the company, now worth $550,000 with annual revenues of $40,000.

Under current law, the company’s value for tax purposes would be “stepped up” to that new amount, and the daughter wouldn’t owe capital gains taxes on her inheritance. Next, say she sells the distributor five years later for $710,000, when its annual income has grown to $50,000 and she’s ready to cash out. Under current law, she would owe the 23.8% capital gains tax on its appreciation under her wing, or more than $38,000 ($710,000-$550,000 = $160,000; $160,000 x .238 = $38,080).

Under Biden’s proposal, she wouldn’t owe tax upon inheriting and running the business her father started — but neither would it get a stepped-up basis. Which means that when she eventually sells the company for $710,000, she would owe capital gains tax, at Biden’s higher rate, on its total gains since it started from zero. That’s a tax bill of more than $281,000 ($710,000 x .396 = $281,160). Under the White House’s plan, her tax bill is more than seven times higher. She can pay it over 15 years, at more than $18,700 a year, but may not have the cash from its sales.”

FINSUM: This is obviously a massive hike and a terrible burden for all but the wealthiest individuals. It is likely to cause debt for many, and a resulting fire sale in small businesses.

(New York)

The market has been nervous for months about growing inflation in the US. The Fed has tried to appear sanguine about it, and has so far done a decent job of keeping fears in check. However, a blowout inflation report this month, as well as more hawkish comments this week, means that anxiety is rising strongly again. And according to Jeffrey Gundlach, the fears are justified as he believes inflation will not be “transitory” as central bankers have been predicting. One of his core arguments is that inflation may become a self-fulfilling prophecy, where consumers start stocking up on items now to avoid future price rises, which in turn causes shortages and drives prices higher.

FINSUM: The self-fulfilling prophecy is a good near-term argument, but we have a longer-term one: demographics. The largest generation in the history of the US—Millennials—are coming into their peak earning and buying years, which is creating demand for literally everything, and supply is tight across almost all industries. Inflation looks inevitable.