Displaying items by tag: jobless claims
Goldman Sachs, who has been a leader in putting out new research n the economic effects of the current lockdown, has issued new guidance on this week’s pending jobless claims. The bank thinks jobless claims will increase to a whopping 6m this week. If that happens, it would mean this week’s figure would exceed the record that stood until last week by a whopping 9x. The coming release will cover the week from March 22-28th. “Jobless claims will be the timeliest hard data point for assessing the depth of the recession and catching the start of the recovery”, says Goldman.
FINSUM: The period the release covers is not even likely to be the worst. There is probably still a few weeks before the full scale of the layoffs becomes apparent and the numbers peak.
Today is a stark reminder of the differences between the view from Main Street and the view from Wall Street. US weekly jobless claims were leased this morning and broke the all-time record of weekly losses by almost 500%. The previous record was 695,000 jobs lost in 1982. This week’s figures was 3.28m. Yet despite the shockingly grim number, stocks are rallying heartily as investors bet the government’s stimulus will be a cure-all.
FINSUM: This is a great example of how the market only cares about actual vs predicted numbers. Investors figure the 3.3m losses were already priced in, so presumably there is upside. The reality of where things head is anyone’s guess.
Yes, the market had an unbelievable day yesterday. It was so good in fact, that it reminds one of all the things bad about the current situation—markets don’t rise 11% unless there is a huge crisis going on. At the time of writing, markets are pretty flat today, but tomorrow could be a doozy. US weekly jobless clams get released tomorrow morning and will be one of the first tangible signs of how the economy is trending under the coronavirus lockdown.
FINSUM: Many analysts are saying we might hit 30% unemployment, depending on how long this general virus lockdown lasts. Tomorrow could be the first sign of things to come and markets may react sharply.
The whole market has been on recession watch mode lately. The Fed has gone seriously dovish and weak economic data seems to be emerging by the day. However, some good news, at last: US jobless data just clocked in at the lowest level in 50 years, showing that the labor market is still tight. The numbers were in contrast to economists’ estimates for higher claims. Claims have fallen this far recently, but been revised higher later.
FINSUM: This is good news but it may not be indicative of much as this data could be slightly behind the hiring numbers, which have been weak recently.