Displaying items by tag: inflation

U.S. Treasury yields rose on Monday with the benchmark 10-year yield hitting a five-week peak of 3.039%, while the 30-year yield climbed to a seven-week high of 3.268%. Yields rose as investors await a Federal Reserve gathering occurring later this week in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Fed is widely expected to reinforce its commitment to tackling inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak Friday morning at the Jackson Hole symposium. Last week's Fed minutes appeared to suggest that the Fed is on course to continue to increase interest rates with the central bank seeing "little evidence" that inflation was easing. The auction for shorter-dated coupons this week also added to the sell-off in Treasuries, pushing their yields higher. Traders typically sell Treasuries before an auction and then buy them back at a lower price. 

Finsum: Treasuries hit multi-week highs on Monday as investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday morning at the Jackson Hole symposium.

While a far cry from the size and scope Dems were originally hoping for Biden’s multi-agenda bill will hit his desk after passing the house, but what does this mean for the market and the U.S. economy? The bill is $430 billion dollars and will change taxes, healthcare, and climate policy. The plan hopes to slash carbon emissions by 40% within the decade spending a hefty $369 billion. However, it plans to generate $737 billion through tax changes and will have a net impact of $300 billion in deficit reduction according to the CBO. For the market, the stock buyback provision will be critical, but congress says it will generate $74 billion on its own. Still, this has been a key avenue for corporate spending in the last decade and Wallstreet will claim it forces inefficient maneuvers by corporations. The inflation reduction act will only make a very small impact on inflation over the next decade according to experts.

Finsum: Equity buyback taxes are very dumb, distorting how companies effectively spend money with excess revenue will only hurt the economy and the companies.

The U.S. had two consecutive quarters of negative growth meeting the technical requirements of a recession, and for the first time in over 40 years that coincided with very high inflation. Tasked with generating high returns in a stagflation environment investors are turning to an odd place, emerging markets. While some EM has suffered as a result of a stronger dollar and Fed tightening, pockets are promising to bring big returns in higher growth environments abroad. Countries relying on exports will have a difficult time, but countries like India, Malaysia, and Indonesia all have fairly robust domestic consumer demand and are quick-growing economies. The last country is an oddball but China has continued to deliver stimulus throughout the pandemic and may put itself in a good position to capture investor attention.

Finsum: Equities abroad are ultra-low, finding the right countries with domestic consumer support could be very profitable.

Wealthy investors are hitting a pandemic low in terms of optimism around the market as concerns flare up surrounding volatility. The latest survey by UBS shows that inflation and geopolitics are weighing down investor sentiment regarding optimism. The majority of investors are concerned most regarding inflation and are shifting into cash holdings and the inflation concerns have them weary about where to invest. Under a third said they would increase market holdings if there was a 10% blow-off. Still, investors show a desire to invest in long-term assets such as renewables and smart mobility.

Finsum: Keeping a long eye is a smart play right now but older investors are in a difficult position regarding the market. 

If you’ve had a bit more concern about the economy and your financial portfolio recently, then you’re far from alone. With ongoing market tumult and surging inflation, it’s reasonable to wonder what the future holds for your finances.