Displaying items by tag: inflation
Dalio is quick to remind everyone to avoid holding cash as inflation eats away at holdings, but he also recently provided stocks for investors looking to hedge. The first on the list is Global Payments which has sound fundamentals and sequential quarterly revenue gains and is a bright spot in a growing industry. The next was Levi Strauss and Company which shrugged off naysayers who believed supply constraints and bottlenecks would keep them from meeting demand. Finally, was Lithia Motors which is a large automotive group. Supply constraints have boosted used car prices and the industry’s bottom lines.
FINSUM: These are all unique picks that have their built in inflation benefits, particularly the automotive industry.
Another post pandemic super bill is flowing through the economy this time with a Biden name tag, and the president claims the $1.2 trillion dollar stimulus will lower inflation. The idea is the new bill will lubricate the American supply chains and have goods flowing easier and thus lowering costs. It's difficult to say if this bill will un-kink the supply chains or just boost demand and prices even more. Americans are already worried about $4.50 gass and surging food prices. Inflation hit a 31 year record this month, and inflation expectations aren’t slowing according to the Michigan survey of consumer expectations. The median projection is 4.6% over the next year, up nearly 2% from a year ago. Additionally the Biden administration is planning on pushing the $1.75 trillion dollar Build Back Better in the upcoming weeks.
FINSUM: A stimulus bill would have to be hyper targeted at supply chains to have the effect Biden is aiming at, and in combination with the BBB these bills will only further the U.S.’s inflation problem.
Throughout 2021 one of the biggest worries for investors, business owners, and policy makers has been the return of inflation…see the full story on our partner’s site
Headline inflation, which includes food and energy prices, rose at a staggering 4.4% annual growth at the end of September, which is the highest number posted since 1991. This isn’t necessarily the Fed’s preferred inflation metric because food and energy prices are more volatile than other areas, but even excluding those categories core inflation was at 3.1%. On top of that, personal income is down almost 1%, which makes that inflation gain even more painful. Policy makers are worried about overall economic health as stagflation becomes a real possibility with GDP coming in at just 2%, the weakest quarter since the recovery started. Treasury Secretary Yellen says that yearly inflation will remain high but she expects monthly inflation to come down as the year closes, with headline figures coming down towards the target of 2%. On the positive side, wages and salaries kept up this month, hitting 4.6% but that still poses challenges for the labor market in its own way.
FINSUM: Inflation is still posting strong gains but keep your eyes on the monthly annualized numbers to gauge if what Yellen says is accurate.
The fixed income market is in some of the worst shapes in recent memory. Both government and corporate debt have lost a 15 year high of 4.4% this year. Regardless if inflation is being driven by central banks and trillion-dollar stimulus or the supply chain disruptions Powell is claiming the bottom line is inflation is eating at the ‘fixed income’ bond investors have relied on. The U.K., Euro area, and Japan haven’t exactly been a shelter dropping 7.5%, 8%, and 9.8% respectively. On top of all of this, the Fed and other central banks are tightening, eroding the value of existing bonds. There has been shelter if investors are willing to look to emerging markets, such as China but overall investors need to be more flexible and can’t rely on index bond investing to survive.
FINSUM: High-yield corporate debt is where investors are going to have to look domestically to get the return after inflation they are used to.