Displaying items by tag: dow

(New York)

The ten-year treasury yield hit one year high at 1.6% on Friday, just after President Biden signed the $1.9 trillion stimulus package into law. Some are arguing that this is a new equilibrium for…view the full story on our partner Magnifi’s site

(New York)

The Nasdaq is behaving very oddly and it should give investors pause. It is very rare for the Nasdaq and the Dow to be this out of sync. A couple days ago the Nasdaq outperformed the DJIA by 3.5%+, something it had not done in 20 years. Some take this as a sign of bullishness, but in reality, historical precedents say that when the Dow and Nasdaq are out of sync it is bad news. In fact, the only other time the two indices were this out of sync was the dotcom bubble.

FINSUM: The bottom line here is that major Nasdaq volatility in excess of Dow moves are not good. That means days like last Friday should be feared rather than celebrated. Stay vigilant.

(New York)

Stocks are tumbling today on worries that a second wave, and a prolonged economic downturn, are becoming a reality. The Dow opened down 2.4%. Several US states have seen their weekly COVID cases spiking, and total US cases are now over 2 million. Coupled with some not-great economic data from around the world, all 11 S&P 500 sectors are down today. One asset manager in London summed up the situation nicely, saying “The timeline for the virus is being extended. It’s becoming clear that it’s a choice of allowing economies to open and take the public health hit, or lockdown countries and take the economic hit”.

FINSUM: This is tough for investors, but it is hard to argue that markets are not being rational.

(New York)

The S&P 500 hit a wall last week and saw its worst performance in a couple of months. Today notwithstanding, the market could be in for another big fall, according to Barron’s. Stocks fell 2.7% and it could be a sign that a reversal is coming. According to Nomura, “If [the S&P 500] continues to fail, you’ll hear about topping patterns, lower highs, exhaustion, and a lack of momentum”.

FINSUM: So the argument here is basically “death spiral caused by attrition”, so sort of like someone pushing a boulder up a hill and when they can’t quite get it to the top, they tumble back down. We are inclined to disagree here given that the Fed is sending such strong support signals.

(New York)

In what comes as a very important announcement right now, Goldman Sachs argues that the stock market has not bottomed, and that it will take three things happening for the nadir to arrive. In order for markets to reach a bottom and start to sustainably rise, Goldman says case numbers must start to fall, there must be evidence that Fed and Congressional efforts are sufficient to support the economy, and investor sentiment and market positioning must bottom out (which has not even close to happened yet, according to GS). Goldman expects the S&P 500 to finish the year at 3,000.

FINSUM: We agree with the first two points (about case numbers and stimulus), but the third argument about positioning seems circular to us, as it relies on the markets getting worse before getting better.