Displaying items by tag: bear
Markets are on a brutal run. At their peak, they were off 15% last week, and the worst news is that it is likely not over. According to Citigroup, the market is still positioned to fall considerably. Despite the big losses, futures are positioned as a net long, which means there is plenty of room for the market to fall. “There is not capitulation yet, not at all”, says Citigroup. According to the bank’s quantitative analysis team, stocks would have to fall 23% for the long bets to be cleared out. “The futures market has got less long [or positive on] equities but it’s still not short and that’s the problem”.
FINSUM: This makes pretty good sense. Markets were very overbought before the fall, and with Bernie in the lead, there is little to calm investors right now.
It isn’t just Apple that is at risk from coronavirus. A lot of other tech companies are too, and it makes perfect sense. Apple is far from the only major US tech company that sources many of its parts from China and relies on the country for a significant portion of revenue. The other major companies which are highly exposed are Tesla (20% of its supply and demand comes from China), Dell, HP, and Corning (which looks especially vulnerable).
FINSUM: Corning has a major glass factory in Wuhan itself and relies on China for 25% of its revenue.
If there was ever a stock market indicator that makes us worry, it is when the general public gets very bullish. Nothing seems to yell “stock market peak” like a record setting sentiment number. A new sentiment tracker from Qontigo called ROOF (risk-on/risk-off) just registered a score of 4.8, which is in the 95th percentile historically. The ROOF score hit a low on October 2nd and has been rising since then.
FINSUM: Whenever we see readings like this it just always feels as though a correction is near. The reason why is that since people’s expectations are high, they are easily let down and get fearful/redemptive.
A huge institutional investor is poised to make a fortune if markets plunge. The biggest hedge fund in the world—Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater—has reportedly placed a $1 bn+ bet that stocks will tumble. Using Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the firm has been building up the bearish position for months. The bet wagers that stocks will fall sharply by March and will pay off if either the S&P 500 or the Euro Stoxx 50 moves lower. Bridgewater reportedly paid $1.5 bn for the options contracts, roughly 1% of their AUM.
FINSUM: This is a huge bet. Normally you could argue that this might just be a hedge, but the size of the position makes it seem much more like a gamble than a hedge.
It is not going to be a huge crash, but Morgan Stanley thinks US stocks will struggle in 2020. The bank thinks the US is clearly “late-cycle” and that its growth will wane from 2.3% to 1.8% next year. It believes the Dollar will weaken and stocks will struggle. The bank thinks most of the benefits of the Fed’s rate cuts have already been priced into the market. “In 2020, the economy will grow more slowly as the bulk of the positive lift from lower interest rates will have been absorbed and households balance higher income with higher prices from tariff”, says Morgan Stanley. The bank says emerging markets are likely to outperform.
FINSUM: Of all the forecasts we have seen lately, this one seems the most realistic. We don’t see a big bust coming, but a plateau seems very believable.