Displaying items by tag: ethereum

According to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, there is only a 25% chance that the SEC approves a spot ethereum ETF. He points to the lack of SEC engagement on the topic and the absence of any positive signs or chatter on the subject, which is a departure from the lead-up to bitcoin’s approval. Balchunas believes this lack of engagement is ‘tactical’ rather than ‘procrastination’. 

The crux of the issue is how ethereum should be classified. There are indications that the SEC is leaning towards treating it like a security based on subpoenas to crypto companies that have interacted with the Ethereum Foundation. 

However, there are some dissenting voices who are more optimistic about approval. Craig Salm, Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer, says the SEC’s reticence is due to most issues already being cleared up during the bitcoin ETF approval process. He believes both ETFs are nearly identical, except for the underlying asset. He also pointed to the approval of an ethereum futures ETF and its classification as a commodity future as a favorable sign. 

Currently, several asset managers have filed for approval for an ethereum ETF, including Blackrock, VanEck, ARK 21Shares, Fidelity, Invesco Galaxy, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton, and Hashdex. The most immediate deadline is May 23 for VanEck.

Finsum: Over the next couple of months, the SEC will decide on an ethereum ETF. Reading the tea leaves, Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas is not optimistic that it will be approved. 

(New York)

Despite a very poor three months, there have been increasing amounts of articles arguing that Bitcoin may be a tipping point where it moves higher. However, Bloomberg has published a piece saying it is at a so-called death cross. The cryptocurrency’s 50-day moving average has dropped to its nearest point to its 200-day moving average in nine months, a move which spells doom for technical analysts. If it crosses below the 200-day threshold, it would signal the “death cross”.

FINSUM: While this does seem significant, we would argue that technical analysis is not as relevant in Bitcoin. The reason why being that the fundamentals of the market (e.g. a sound regulatory environment) are unstable, and there is little trading history from which to weigh technical indicators.

(New York)

So everyone knows that Bitcoin suffered a huge plunge earlier this year. The fall amounted to around 60% at its peak before stabilizing recently. However, what many are not aware of is how much total trading volume fell during the volatility. While stock market losses are often associated with increasing trading, that did not happen with bitcoin. Volume is stuck at about half its peak from December, and touched its lowest level in two years in February. This has many wondering if the currency is waning in popularity.

FINSUM: This piece was interesting to us because it contrasts with what you hear about the explosion in popularity of cryptos.

(New York)

While all the focus is understandably on stocks, Bitcoin is continuing to see a huge exodus of buyers. The market is now down to around $6,000, or about 70% from its peak of near $20,000. Bitcoin, and crypt currencies generally, have been brutalized by a number of regulatory announcements which seek to reign in the currencies. These include in South Korea—one of cryptocurrencies’ biggest markets, as well as by the SEC in the US, where chairman Jay Clayton has become a staunch enforcer.

FINSUM: We have been saying for months that there was simply too much regulatory risk to sustain the high valuations. That prediction has certainly proved right and we think it has further to run.

(New York)

Deutsche Bank has just put out a stern warning on what is one of the quickest growing asset classes there is. Yes, you guessed it, cryptocurrencies. The bank does not recommend any of its wealth management clients to invest in the space, saying “We do not recommend that. It’s only for investors who invest speculatively … There is a realistic risk of total loss”. The bank says cryptos are plagued by high volatility, possible price manipulation, and data loss or theft.

FINSUM: Just to clarify our opinion on cryptos, our view is that they are not going anywhere and will likely be a part of financial markets for the foreseeable future. However, they have such high regulatory risk right now, and such a lack of clarity on valuation, that it is simply too risky to put any money in.