Displaying items by tag: China

Recent movements in some of the most sensitive global assets suggest that the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates may have come too soon or might not be sustainable. Since the Fed’s rate cut in mid-September, emerging-market assets have acted as if borrowing costs will stay elevated, leaving them vulnerable. 

New risks, including rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar, have overshadowed any benefits from the rate cut, with concerns over China’s lackluster stimulus and the potential return of Donald Trump to the presidency adding to market uncertainty. 

Investors in emerging markets are now positioning themselves defensively in the face of a stronger U.S. economy and a weakening Chinese one. While there was initial optimism, strong U.S. data and political tensions have reignited fears of persistent inflation. 

Finsum: This could have traders reassessing their strategies, unsure of how much more support they can expect from central banks.

The U.S. is close to finalizing rules that will restrict certain American investments in China’s artificial intelligence sector, with a focus on national security. These regulations, currently under review by the Office of Management and Budget, are expected to be released soon and stem from an executive order issued by President Biden in August 2023. 

The new rules will require U.S. investors to notify the Treasury Department about AI-related investments and limit funding for technologies like semiconductors, quantum computing, and microelectronics that could benefit China's military. 

Some exceptions, such as investments in publicly traded securities and certain limited partnerships, have been proposed. Experts expect further clarification in the final rules, particularly regarding AI's scope and the conditions for limited partners. 

Finsum: There seems to be broader efforts to safeguard U.S. technological from China and this trend is worth monitoring. 

Oil prices dropped over 2% earlier this week, erasing last week's gains as OPEC revised down its 2024 and 2025 global demand forecasts. China's crude oil imports have now declined for the fifth consecutive month, further weighing on prices. 

Despite China's efforts at economic stimulus, investors remain unconvinced, adding to concerns over demand. Brent crude fell by $1.72 to $77.34 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped to $73.82. 

OPEC attributed much of the demand reduction to China's sluggish economic growth and rising electric vehicle adoption. Geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran also linger as potential risks to oil markets.

Finsum: Oil price declines and yet inflation still remains slightly elevated, investors should monitor this trend in case inflation takes off again. 

Leading up to the much-anticipated rate cut, global investors increased their equity fund purchases, anticipating a rate cut by the Federal Reserve that would kick off a broader cycle of reductions. A total of $5.21 billion was poured into equity funds, slightly below the $6.54 billion invested the previous week. 

The Fed’s 50-basis point rate cut spurred risk appetite, particularly in Asia and Europe, where equity funds attracted strong inflows. Meanwhile, U.S. equity fund sales declined to a four-week low. Sector funds, particularly in financials and tech, saw outflows for the third consecutive week, while bond funds maintained their appeal, continuing a 39-week streak of net inflows. 

Additionally, precious metal funds attracted investors for a sixth week, while energy funds faced a reversal with net sales of $129 million. The data reflects increased confidence in riskier assets and a shift away from money market funds, which saw outflows after six weeks of positive investments.

Finsum: There are still two more rate hikes on the forecast if investors want to take note of these trends in equity markets.

Emerging-market stocks fell as new signs of economic trouble in China emerged, with trading volumes low due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index slid 0.3%, driven by declines in Chinese giants like Alibaba and Tencent, despite gains in Taiwan Semiconductor. 

The drop followed data showing that Chinese factory activity contracted for the fourth month in a row, casting doubt on the country’s growth prospects for the year. Meanwhile, currency markets are bracing for potential U.S. interest rate cuts, with upcoming economic reports likely to shape the outlook. 

The Brazilian real weakened despite central bank interventions, amid rising fiscal concerns and political uncertainty in Latin America. In a related move, Hungary issued yen-denominated bonds, nearing its cap on foreign currency debt issuance.

Finsum: It will be critical to monitor exchange rates as the US begins letting rates fall, this could have a big impact on Ems