Politics
(Beijing)
While the market might have taken a sigh of relief yesterday when the US tried to tone down the threat of a trade war with Beijing, make no mistake, China’s debut of a new package of tariffs is nothing to take lightly. The country proposed 25% tariff hikes on 106 US imports, including big ones like soy beans, cars, and chemicals. ““America’s measures [to impose tariffs] have violated the rules of the World Trade Organization and have seriously violated China’s legal rights”, said the country’s foreign ministry. “China does not want a trade war because no one will emerge as a winner in a trade war … but if someone insists on fighting a trade war, we will be there”, said the Chinese vice-minister of commerce.
FINSUM: So we are in a catch 22 with imposing higher tariffs. China has gotten the better of the deal for decades, but changing the terms is not going to be easy because of how big a consumer the country has become.
(Washington)
Donald Trump may be in some very hot water soon. Stormy Daniels’ lawyer has just moved to interview the president under oath in relation to her lawsuit against him. Her lawyer, Michael Avenatti, has just asked a California court for the right to depose the president and his lawyer. The president’s lawyer, Michael Cohen, reject Daniels’ claim, defending his payment to her saying “just because something isn’t true doesn’t mean that it can’t cause you harm or damage”.
FINSUM: We suspect this request will not actually lead to Trump speaking under oath, but that does not mean something else in the case (or others) will not eventually put the president in that position.
(Beijing)
Well the market took a big sigh of relief yesterday, with prices swinging back massively. One of the big reasons why was less fear over a possible trade war. In particular, China took a much more conciliatory approach this week. The country announced it would ease foreign investment rules and buy more American semiconductors, a stark move that contrasts the American push towards big tariffs on Chinese imports to the US.
FINSUM: The bottom line in the US tussle with China over tariffs is that the US has a $375 bn trade deficit to Beijing, which means we have much less to lose than them. This is probably the reason Trump referred to trade wars as easy to win.
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(Washington)
While all the current political anxiety seems to be centered around the midterm elections and what future that may hold for Republicans, the real trouble could be for Trump in 2020, says Bloomberg. According to economists, all signs are pointing to a recession in 2020. While the current tax cuts and fiscal stimulus will insulate the economy this year and next, “Fading fiscal stimulus, higher and rising interest rates, and cresting world demand could leave the economy vulnerable to a contraction -- just in time for the presidential campaign”, says Bloomberg.
FINSUM: A recession starting in the year of reelection would not be good for an incumbent president, and the timelines do seem to make sense.
(Washington)
Though he had remained silent on the issue for three days, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has finally spoken out on the Trump-Mueller tension. McConnell held a press conference yesterday to commend the job Robert Mueller is doing and to admonish the President to let him finish his investigation. McConnell said Mueller “should be allowed to finish his job”, and that “I don’t think Bob Mueller is going anywhere … I have a lot of confidence in him”. Republican Senator Lindsey Graham also said that if Trump tried to fire Mueller without cause than it would be an impeachable offense.
FINSUM: We think Trump is sharp enough not to try to fire Mueller as it would create an absolute political nightmare.
(Washington)
This weekend saw President Trump escalate his attacks on Robert Mueller’s special counsel investigation. Trump and his lawyers launched a public campaign to condemn the investigation which included Trump’s first tweets targeting Mueller by name. Trump tweeted that the investigation “should never have been started in that there was no collusion and there was no crime”, saying that the Mueller investigation was being led by “hardened Democrats” intent on taking down the Republican president. Trump’s more aggressive stance than in previous months led to several warnings from senators on both sides of the aisle that he should not try to end the investigation.
FINSUM: One keeps wondering if some bombshell accusation is going to arise from this investigation or whether it will end up being a long waste of time.