Displaying items by tag: wealth tax

Hedge fund billionaire John Paulson, known for his profitable bet against the housing market during the financial crisis, warned of a potential market collapse if Vice President Kamala Harris' proposed tax plans are implemented. 

In an interview on CNBC, Paulson criticized Harris' endorsement of raising the corporate tax rate to 28%, increasing the capital gains tax to 39%, and taxing unrealized gains, predicting these measures would trigger a financial downturn. While Harris has supported tax hikes proposed by President Biden, insiders suggest she may not pursue taxing unrealized gains. 

Paulson believes such policies would lead to massive asset sell-offs and a recession. Some economists agree higher corporate taxes could impact earnings but don't foresee the drastic crash Paulson predicts. 

Finsum: The impacts of the taxes on unrealized capital gains are overblown, they affect a very small unmeasurable margin.

President Biden’s 2023 federal budget levy’s a new ultra-wealthy tax that would apply 20% total income tax on those with a net worth of more than $100 million. Notably in the deal, it opens the window to tax unrealized capital gains or any asset growth. The bill is expected to meet a brick wall in congress however as even moderate Dems will have a difficult time supporting it. Biden’s selling point is the expected $360 billion in payments toward the deficit in the next decade. However, the senate proposed a very similar bill last year that was shut down by congress.

Finsum: Taxing unrealized gains is a slippery slope, and hopefully would never trickle down to different wealth classes.

(New York)

Warren and Sanders’ tax plans have been scaring those on the right for several months, especially as Warren has risen to become the dominant candidate for the Democratic bid. But how much of a negative effect might her plans have on the market? The answer is probably not much, and if anything, it will be bullish for risk assets. Firstly, Warren’s plan will only touch the top 75,000 households in the country, so it is a niche focus. But secondly, because of the taxes imposed, ultra high net-worth families will need to be more aggressive in their asset allocation in order to continue to grow their wealth, meaning they will likely put more capital into risk-on investments.

FINSUM: This was quite a useful insight. It is hard to imagine Warren’s wealth tax being good for the market, but the logic of this argument (from Barron’s) seems sound.

(Washington)

Bernie Sanders is struggling to keep his positon as the third most popular candidate in the Democratic primary. Elizabeth Warren seems to have taken a lot of his platform and delivered it more succinctly and less cantankerously. However, Sanders is trying to one-up her and has just announced his own wealth tax plans. Bernie goes further than Warren with a tax that aims to cut net worth of America’s richest by half in the next decade. Sanders further commented on his plan, saying “billionaires should not exist”.

FINSUM: Whatever you think of this plan, we don’t believe this is ultimately going to help Bernie or the Democrats win the general election, as this is likely just too radical for most Americans.

(New York)

Barron’s has published a piece which covers a survey of wealthy Americans. The survey sought to find out how the wealthiest Americans felt about Senator Elizabeth Warren’s plan for a wealthy tax of 2-3% on those with over $50m or over $1 bn in wealth. The results were surprisingly, with 60% of wealthy respondents saying they would embrace the plan. The feedback was split on party lines, with 88% of Democrats agreeing, 62% of independents, and 36% of Republicans in favor of it.

FINSUM: We are somewhat skeptical of these stats. Advisors, please email us with any anecdotes on how your clients have reacted to this plan.