Displaying items by tag: Trump

(Beijing)

It has been a very bumpy run for US-China trade talks this year, but after a significant hiatus, China will again return to the negotiating table with the US in September. The most recent round of talks, in Shanghai, just concluded without an agreement, but there were some signs of life, as China buying US farm goods was discussed. The negotiators only stayed in Shanghai about 24 hours.

FINSUM: This seems to us like quite an intractable issue. We do not expect a forthcoming agreement any time soon.

(Washington)

The first round of the Democratic debates a few weeks ago was a little disappointing from an entertainment perspective. All the candidates seemed loathe to argue with one another, so the overall debate didn’t have the electric atmosphere that many of the candidates seem to have outside the debate venue. However, tonight and tomorrow should be different, as Joe Biden is likely to be under heavy attack as the frontrunner. The field of candidates is thinning and the stakes are much higher this time, which means there are likely to be more aggressive tactics. Biden himself has said he won’t be so friendly this time around.

FINSUM: If we had to make a call right now, we would say that Trump is likely to win re-reelection. Our reasoning is simple—the candidate most likely to win the Democratic bid is probably the one most tolerable to Republicans (i.e. Biden), which means the average American voter is more skewed to the right than to the left.

(Washington)

It may seem very far out right now, but the 2020 election is looking like it could be a very bad outcome for markets. Democrats are still leading in the polls, which is bad news because pretty much every candidate (perhaps with the exception of Biden) looks like they would be quite bearish for markets. Between higher taxes, more regulations, and government run healthcare, the outlook for markets from most of the leading candidates appears bleak.

FINSUM: When you take even a casual glance at how this election is shaping up, things look rough. You have the most leftist Democratic candidates in memory, and they are leading the polls. We think the polls are off and Trump still has better odds, but there is undoubtedly a very large risk.

(Washington)

After the “trade truce” at the G20 it was looking more like the US and China may get a trade deal done soon. However, news out recently says otherwise, as China has not boosted its purchases of US agricultural products. Such a move was a key tenet of the agreement Trump apparently struck with Xi at the G20, but Beijing has not followed through on the promise. Trump complained publicly about this yesterday, but China denies they ever made such an agreement.

FINSUM: This seems small and petty but it is precisely not the direction that one would like these talks to be headed in.

(Washington)

Donald Trump did something many might not have expected when he met Xi Jinping recently at the G20 conference: he told him he would dial down the criticism of China regarding the demonstrations in Hong Kong in order to get Beijing back to the negotiating table. The offer apparently echoed a previous one he had made to Xi in the week leading up to the conference. The plan worked and China has agreed to resume trade talks.

FINSUM: While many may disagree with the concession to China, we think this shows one thing very clearly: Trump does not want to let the trade war derail the US economy or markets and will likely do whatever is in his power to keep them afloat.