(Beijing)

While the market might have taken a sigh of relief yesterday when the US tried to tone down the threat of a trade war with Beijing, make no mistake, China’s debut of a new package of tariffs is nothing to take lightly. The country proposed 25% tariff hikes on 106 US imports, including big ones like soy beans, cars, and chemicals. ““America’s measures [to impose tariffs] have violated the rules of the World Trade Organization and have seriously violated China’s legal rights”, said the country’s foreign ministry. “China does not want a trade war because no one will emerge as a winner in a trade war … but if someone insists on fighting a trade war, we will be there”, said the Chinese vice-minister of commerce.

FINSUM: So we are in a catch 22 with imposing higher tariffs. China has gotten the better of the deal for decades, but changing the terms is not going to be easy because of how big a consumer the country has become.

(Washington)

The market is increasingly worried about a big regulatory push against the tech industry. Amazon, along with Facebook, are dead center in the bullseye of the push. However, Bloomberg tells investors not to be too worried. The reason why is that according to five sources inside the White House, there are no active discussions or planning about any regulation that would impact the ecommerce retailer. Even in the case of the Post Office, which Trump has focused on, rates are set by a commission, and the organization is legally barred from charging any shipper less than its cost of delivery, meaning Amazon can’t be underpaying.

FINSUM: This is quite relieving if you are an Amazon investor. However, beyond any immediate threats, we do agree that the government is going to have to reconsider anti-trust regulation in light of how data is being used an abused by large tech companies.

(New York)

Goldman Sachs has been pushing into a lot of new business lines over the last few years—consumer lending being the principal one, as well as further into wealth management. However, the company is in the midst of launching yet another—business banking. The bank is working on a suite of tools for large businesses to use, such as deposit accounts, cash management tools etc. The move is seen by some as an odd one, as such services are dominated by huge-balance sheet integrated banks, such as JP Morgan and Citi.

FINSUM: This could become a good business, but it is not clear that Goldman has any strategic advantage to gain market share.

(New York)

While there are a lot of concerns about the bond market right now, one of the risks that is being ignored is credit quality itself. Well, there might be a bomb set to go off in credit. In particular, there appear to be major risks in the Triple BBB category of bonds. This group is considered investment grade, but only just so. There are currently $2.5 tn in US debt with this rating, double the level of five years ago, according to Morgan Stanley. MS says that in a downturn, investors may abandon this type of debt, raising rates for the borrowers, and in turn exacerbating the economic contraction. All of which seems likely to hurt the stock market.

FINSUM: This part of the bond market is so huge, that an exodus from this area would greatly wound the economy.

(New York)

We at FINSUM have been keeping a close eye on the economy, and in particular, looking for any signs of the end of the current business cycle. Today, we might have found one. One of the big worries of economists and investors of late has been the slowdown in consumer spending—a concern in its own right, but not conclusive. Today, we might be seeing why. Lenders all over the US have been tightening their businesses and lending out less cash. That has left less money available for purchases. From 2011 through the end of 2016, credit standards had loosened, but since then they have tightened, even as wages have grown and unemployment has fallen.

FINSUM: This decline in lending seems to show that many lenders think there is more risk than reward in the economy, which may in turn bring on the recession they sense is coming.