(New York)

The general understanding of markets is that bond investors are signaling that there is going to be a recession. Treasury yields have tumbled, and the Treasury yield curve has inverted, both signs of a coming downturn. However, the corporate bond market is sending a different signal, and it is worth paying attention to. The big sign of economic worry in the corporate bond markets is widening spreads between investment grade bonds and junk, but that is exactly the opposite of what is happening. The market is sanguine, and showing little of the concern that Treasury markets are. “Corporate spreads are extraordinarily narrow”, says Dan Fuss, vice chairman of Loomis Sayles.

FINSUM: This is a very good sign in our opinion. While it could turn out to be wrong, we do think this signals that Treasury investors may simply be overreacting.

(Atlanta)

In what may come as a worrying sing for older Americans, anecdotal evidence is showing that it may be luxury real estate that is hit hardest as the property market slows. The reason why is that there is a glut of huge houses that no longer suit buyers. In particular, Sun Belt areas are replete with years worth of high end inventory that just isn’t moving. In the early 2000s, Baby Boomers built many large five and six bedroom homes where they planned to live out their golden years, yet tastes have changed, as have living conditions, and few want those kind of homes now.

FINSUM: It is not just the size and expense of upkeep that are problems, but many of these are built 15-20 minutes outside of town, which is not nearly as appealing to buyers as it was 15 years ago.

(New York)

Markets have moved so fast that investors are now once again braced with the question that plagued them for almost a decade—how to get some income in a low yield world. Ten-year Treasuries are now yielding a very weak 2.36%, way down from the 3.2% they reached in 2018. That means investors need a place to park money. High yield savings accounts are still looking like a strong option, while a plethora of dividend funds and dividend stocks now look much more appealing than just a couple of months ago. Yield-sensitive sectors like REITs and utilities also have good outlooks.

FINSUM: The good news for investors is that short-term yields are still high, so it is not nearly as hard to get good yielding, low duration, investments as it was a few years ago.

(New York)

Al the stars are aligning for gold. The metal has been in an epic slump for years. The great post-Crisis recovery has not been so for gold, with the asset falling in value considerably from its Euro crisis-era peak. However, yields are coming down and the threat of recession is rising, both factors which make gold likely to do well. Not only would both factors help gold because of its relationship to interest rates (i.e. the lower the better), but a weaker Dollar also helps overseas buyers of the metal.

FINSUM: The other interesting non-macro factor that may help gold is the recent huge merger of Barrick Gold and Randgold, which consolidates the market and offers a more compelling mining stock to own. It may also put a lid on supply, which could boost prices.

(New York)

Another day, another round of bad news for US real estate. New data on housing starts in February was just released and the results aren’t pretty. The number of new homes under construction fell 8.7% last month, a steep drop. The northeast was hit the hardest, with new starts dropping nearly 30% (thanks SALT limit). The only real gains in the country were in the Midwest, and only in apartments.

FINSUM: Not only did starts fall but new permits also declined, which means the bad run is likely to continue. We are curious how falling yields may boost mortgage issuance.