Displaying items by tag: Trump

From 2021 to 2024, the U.S. saw a record surge in immigration, much of it from people crossing the southern border without visas. Many were released into the country to seek asylum or given temporary protection, and millions entered the labor force. 

By mid-2024, tougher policies and more deportations slowed the inflow sharply. Economists say fewer immigrants could mean slower population and job growth, which may weigh on the broader economy. 

Studies show immigration tends to boost economic output while having little effect on inflation. Looking ahead, stricter policies could further reduce growth if fewer workers are available, especially if mass deportations are carried out.

Finsum: For now, the lasting impact will depend on whether immigration levels stabilize or continue to decline.

In his first public appearance as a Federal Reserve governor, Stephen Miran argued that Trump’s economic policies are lowering inflation and opening the door for sharper rate cuts. Miran cast the lone dissenting vote at the Fed’s recent meeting, favoring a steeper cut than the quarter-point reduction approved by his colleagues. 

He downplayed concerns that tariffs are raising consumer prices, claiming instead that foreign countries are bearing the costs—an assertion disputed by many economists. Miran confirmed he was the outlier in Fed projections, pushing for rates as low as 2.75% to 3% by year-end and promising to lay out his case in an upcoming paper. 

His dual role as both a Fed governor and member of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisors has raised questions about the central bank’s independence. 

Finsum: While Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that policy will ultimately be shaped by data-driven arguments, not politics, Fed independence is at risk.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday he is optimistic that the U.S. and China are closing in on a trade agreement. In an interview with CNBC, he noted that upcoming talks ahead of November’s scheduled reciprocal tariffs have become increasingly productive. 

Bessent suggested Beijing now recognizes that a deal is within reach, even after months of back-and-forth since tariffs were first announced in April. 

While China initially faced duties as high as 145%, those measures have been suspended through Nov. 10 to allow negotiations to continue. He also highlighted that U.S. allies are frustrated by the surge of Chinese goods into their markets, a dynamic adding urgency to the talks. 

Finum: With the U.S. trade deficit with China already narrowing sharply in 2025, there could be a strong incentive to reach a trade deal as soon as possible. 

Despite political pushback and policy rollbacks, most large U.S. companies have maintained or even increased their sustainability investments in 2025, according to a survey by EcoVadis. 

Nearly half of executives said spending remains steady, while about a third reported higher investments paired with reduced public promotion — a trend dubbed “greenhushing.” The findings suggest that firms increasingly view supply chain sustainability as a strategic advantage, with many citing its role in attracting customers and maintaining operational stability. 

Only a small share have cut back, underscoring a belief among corporate leaders that sustainability supports long-term growth, even if it’s less publicly advertised. Concerns remain over regulatory rollbacks, with nearly half of C-suite leaders warning they could increase supply chain disruptions. 

Finsum: The data points to a quieter but still committed corporate approach to sustainability in the face of shifting political and regulatory landscapes.

The July jobs report showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 73,000, with major downward revisions to previous months, signaling that the U.S. economy may be slowing more sharply than expected. This has fueled recession concerns, especially as three-month average job gains dropped to just 35,000 and consumer spending, the key driver of GDP, remains tepid. 

Economists point to Trump-era tariffs and weakening labor market data as contributing factors, with some suggesting we may be on the brink of a recession, though GDP still rose 3% in Q2 due to import timing. 

Market reactions were swift: the Fed is now widely expected to cut rates in September, while stocks wavered amid political backlash and uncertain economic signals. Despite the White House expressing confidence, housing and manufacturing data continue to falter, and experts warn of potential consumer pullback. 

Finsum: While some remain optimistic about a soft landing, the outlook is increasingly clouded by high inflation, policy risk, and weakening employment trends.