(New York)

Some investment banks are saying that the worst of the volatility is over and that markets have bottomed (e.g. Goldman Sachs). However, different approaches give very different valuations. For instance, a new research opinion from Vincent Deluard, head of global macro strategy at INTL FCStone, says that fair value for the S&P 500 is 1,800, or more than 35% below today’s value. The method that comes to that conclusion is a discounted cash flow method that tries to derive the value of future cash flows.

FINSUM: In our opinion, this is a total crap shoot (and even more so right now) as the market is being driven by emotion and speculation to an even larger degree than usual.

(New York)

Dividend stocks are a scary space right now. Not only are earnings likely to be very volatile, but companies have announced major dividend cuts and the suspension of buyback programs. With that in mind, here are some stocks that offer safe and rewarding dividends. Regulated utilities are a great place to turn because they have government-allowed profit margins and are very recession-resistant. Check out American Electric Power (3.3% yield), Dominion Energy (4.6%), FirstEnergy (3.5%), NextEra Energy (2.3%).

FINSUM: These seem like great bets. They are down a little since the COVID explosion, which has boosted yields, but utilities are generally great recession stocks.

We could not be more excited today, as Mark Cuban has featured COVID Loan Tracker and shared with his LinkedIn following.

COVID Loan Tracker was founded in Miami by husband and wife team Duncan and Rita MacDonald-Korth in order to help small business owners track when PPP loan money starts flowing and empower journalists with the data they need to hold the government accountable.

The site’s traffic jumped by 50x yesterday versus Friday and COVID Loan Tracker received an additional 4,000 survey submissions from small businesses yesterday. In total, CLT is now tracking 7,000 PPP loan applications amounting to about $3 bn in applications.

Thus far only about 4% of companies reporting have successfully received PPP Loans.

PLEASE FOLLOW MARK’S LEAD AND SHARE COVID LOAN TRACKER

(New York)

Goldman Sachs is making their position clear. The bank thinks that after all the volatility we have seen, the worst is behind us and stocks have already hit bottom. Goldman says that because of the Fed’s “do whatever it takes” attitude, it is unlikely the market will fall further. “The Fed and Congress have precluded the prospect of a complete economic collapse … These policy actions mean our previous near-term downside of 2,000 is no longer likely” for the S&P 500 Index, according to the bank’s strategists.

FINSUM: We are of two minds on this. On the one hand, Goldman makes a good point about the Fed propping up markets. On the other, there is a liquidity-induced real estate crisis brewing and the true ramifications of this downturn (including its expression in S&P 500 earnings) will not be felt for a few months.

(New York)

For many advisors, the idea of changing firms in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic might be the furthest thing from their minds. But the reality is that for many, this could be an ideal time to switch (or even a necessity) for a number of reasons. Firstly, many advisors feel under-supported by their firms during crises (of which this one is unprecedented), which may motivate them to switch associations. But additionally, because of the volatile to the market, recent valuations/production numbers might mean moving soon makes the most sense, as it will maximize the size of moving checks one can receive.

FINSUM: A lot of advisors seem to be worried about maintaining their employees and payroll given the big fall in fees.