Displaying items by tag: fixed income

With inflation concerns lingering, advisors are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve’s next moves. The Fed held interest rates steady but raised its inflation forecast for the year, while also trimming its growth projection to 1.7%. 

Despite expectations for two rate cuts in 2024, economic uncertainty and potential trade disputes make forecasting difficult. Fixed income investors must remain adaptable, balancing inflation risks with the Fed’s evolving stance. 

Actively managed bond ETFs, such as the Eaton Vance Total Return Bond ETF (EVTR), offer flexibility in navigating rate shifts. By blending investment-grade debt with selective high-yield exposure, EVTR seeks to optimize returns while mitigating risk in an unpredictable market.

Finsum: Active fixed income tends to dominate in macro markets, and that is the current environment that is current environment exactly. 

The rise of private credit has reshaped the landscape of speculative-grade debt, absorbing many of the riskiest borrowers that once relied on public high-yield bonds. With banks retreating from direct lending due to regulatory constraints, private credit firms have stepped in, fueling a market now worth $2.5 trillion globally. 

This shift has left the high-yield bond market with a stronger credit profile, narrowing yield spreads and reducing volatility. However, private credit’s lack of transparency means that credit risk hasn’t disappeared—it has simply moved to a space where prices and risks are less visible. 

While public high-yield bonds have become scarcer and more expensive, some riskier borrowers are returning to public markets through structured investment vehicles. Ultimately, as economic conditions shift, both public and private debt markets may face renewed pressures, exposing hidden risks within private credit’s rapid expansion.

FINSUM: Though private credit obscures some risks, economic stress could still expose vulnerabilities across both public and private debt markets.

Insurance companies are increasingly turning to asset-backed bonds to support annuity payouts amid surging demand for retirement income products. Securitized assets now make up a quarter of insurers’ bond holdings, with exposure growing by $365 billion since 2017, according to Morgan Stanley. 

Higher interest rates have fueled record annuity sales, reaching $432.4 billion in 2024, marking a 12% annual increase. This trend has intensified insurers’ appetite for asset-backed securities (ABS) and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), which saw combined holdings rise to $312 billion last year. 

Esoteric ABS, including whole business and digital infrastructure securitizations, have become key components of insurers’ portfolios due to their yield and duration advantages. As demographic shifts drive continued demand for annuities, Morgan Stanley projects structured credit exposure to grow at a 6% annualized rate through 2027.

Finsum: It’s important to understand the underlying structure of annuities, because it tells a compelling story for their high demand. 

The municipal bond market experienced fluctuations in 2024, with tax-free yields rising in response to Treasury yield movements, particularly in the latter half of the year. Market uncertainty increased following the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut, which coincided with ongoing inflation concerns and economic crosscurrents. 

As 2025 begins, the potential extension of 2017 tax cuts under the new administration may impact demand for tax-free bonds, particularly if corporate tax rates are lowered. Climate-related risks, such as the LA fires and hurricanes, have drawn attention to municipal finance, with increased insurance costs and resilience measures potentially leading to more bond issuance. 

Despite these pressures, municipal credit quality remains stable, supported by strong reserves, prudent budget management, and infrastructure reinvestment. However, challenges persist in certain sectors, including healthcare, higher education, and public K-12 schools, due to shifting demographics, rising costs, and expiring pandemic aid.

Finsum: These are important things to monitor for municipal bonds, and the increasing role of DOGE, could drastically change this bond segment. 

Actively managed U.S. bond funds saw a resurgence in 2024, drawing in substantial investment after two years of outflows, with industry leaders like Pacific Investment Management Co. leading the charge. Morningstar Direct data revealed that six of the ten bond mutual funds with the highest net inflows were actively managed, pulling in a combined $74 billion.

In total, actively managed bond funds attracted $261 billion over the year, the highest level since 2021, despite a bond market selloff triggered by the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut in four years. Core and income-focused bond strategies were the biggest winners, appealing to investors seeking stability in an uncertain interest-rate landscape. 

With Treasury yields hovering near 5% and credit spreads historically tight, investors are weighing the risks and rewards of bonds versus other asset classes. While the Pimco Income Fund remained the largest actively managed bond fund with $26.8 billion in inflows, the Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund led all funds with $33.4 billion. 

Finsum: Uncertainty around fiscal policy and potential inflationary pressures under the new administration could shape how bond markets evolve in 2025.