Displaying items by tag: russia

Russia has begun leveraging bitcoin and other digital currencies for international payments to navigate the challenges of Western sanctions. This shift follows recent legislation allowing cryptocurrency use in foreign trade and steps to legalize crypto mining, where Russia is a global leader. 

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov confirmed that bitcoin mined within the country is already being used in trade, with plans to expand such transactions in the future. President Vladimir Putin has criticized U.S. reliance on the dollar for political leverage, arguing it undermines its role as a global reserve currency. 

Putin has also voiced support for cryptocurrencies, highlighting bitcoin’s resistance to global regulation. These developments underscore Russia's growing focus on digital assets to enhance financial autonomy and trade resilience.

Finsum: While these events can provide volatility in the value of bitcoin they can underscore the value of the currency in an international market. 

While oil prices fluctuate constantly, there is a broad consensus that prices will rise throughout 2023. For instance, Forbes' Bill Sarubbi noted that the technical data of oil trading suggests prices are going to go higher. In a recent article, Sarubbi said that historical data shows oil prices tend to rise between March and May most of the time, therefore it makes sense to expect prices to rise this year as well. Data analytics firm Refinitiv singled out two factors that will drive prices on the supply and demand sides, Russia and China. Refinitiv expects Brent crude to rise above $100 per barrel by the end of the year and average $90 for the full year. The company said at a recent industry event that oil demand this year will surge by 2 million barrels daily and that China will account for half that. In addition, Russia's supply will tighten this month and maybe remain tight, which adds upward pressure to oil prices. Plus, Goldman Sachs senior energy economist Daan Struyven recently reiterated the bank's forecast for higher oil prices due to the lag between an oil market shock and the effect of the shock manifesting in futures prices.

Finsum:There is a broad consensus that oil prices will rise through the year due to technical data of oil trading suggesting prices are going to go higher, demand from China, tightened Russian supply, and the lag between an oil market shock and the effect of the shock manifesting in futures prices.

Private equity set many records for itself in 2021 with gigantic inflows and huge market outperformance, but could that all be slowed in 2022 by an escalating Russia-Ukraine conflict and inflation? Bain & Co said that steeper capital costs driven from these two scenarios will undercut PE as an asset class in 2022. Inflation will hurt growing PE investments and the cheap flow of capital is being reduced by the conflict. There are huge risks that valuations will be much flatter from this point out. This means that the huge inflows and record-setting outperformance might not hold up in 2022.

Finsum: 2021 inflows were already higher than market expectations a natural correction could have been in place, but this could be more severe than just a standard correction.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has triggered tons of sanctions from the west and many of those cut off Russian companies or Russian financers. Direct indexing has been put in one of the best positions of many financial products as they had some of the tiniest exposure to ADRs. With a meager 1% exposure, these portfolios have been left in a fairly healthy position all things considered. Meanwhile, major index companies like MSCI and FTSE Russel have raced to remove any Russian securities. Moreover, Vanguard and BlackRock as well as other major mutual funds were given until May 25 by the Treasury to find an off-shore buyer for Russian stocks. Direct index company dimensional funds have added Russia to a DNP list and have committed to rid of all their Russian stocks.

Finsum: Many funds were able to quickly dump Russian stocks, however, energy prices could be a more difficult problem to navigate.

Goldman Sachs swiftly raised its one-month projection for Brent to $115 a barrel, a $20 price increase from their previous projection. Not only that they say there are still lots of upside risks if there is further disruption or escalation. The only thing that could hold higher oil prices off would be a complete deterioration of demand by the US and Western Europe. More sanctions are upcoming from the west as Russian banks will be banned from SWIFT payment systems. Commodities are also facing higher price pressures with both threats to payment methods for Russian goods and restrictions to Russian commodities to the wider West. On top of all of this shale supply will fail to compensate for the current demand and OPEC+ will have to step in if there is to be any relief in oil prices.

Finsum: This is a good time to by energy bonds as payment streams will surely be in supply with higher gas prices.