(New York)

We saw an article that caught our eye today. How does earning a 1.8% yield on cash sound? If that sounds enticing, consider putting some money in Betterment’s new Smart Saver option. Betterment is seeking to compete with digital banks, who have been boosting interest payouts recently, by offering a product for cash that might be stagnating in a savings account. The yield is backed by a mix of 80% short-term US Treasury bonds and 20% US short-term investment bonds. The only catch is that the account is not FDIC insured, which is a hindrance compared to some bank accounts which are offering comparable yields and are FDIC insured.

FINSUM: This seems like a good offering in principle. Betterment’s argument against the competition is that unlike banks, their holdings directly track the Fed instead of being artificially manipulated to optimize net interest margin.

(New York)

Tesla’s stock is currently in limbo. The company is under SEC investigation on multiple fronts, including for the tweet heard round the world, or Elon Musk’s announcement that he intended to take the company private. Markets are finding it hard to handicap the odds of the deal, which is supposed to take place at $420, actually coming through. However, JP Morgan made a big comment on the company this week, saying the funding to take the company private had likely not been finalized. JP Morgan cut its price forecast to just $195, or well under half the price at which Musk wanted to buy the company back. Tesla’s shares are currently trading around $308.

FINSUM: Based on the news that has come out since the tweet, it does seem like Musk exaggerated having the funding secured, which makes this whole deal look very shaky.

(Washington)

Trump spooked currency and Treasury markets yesterday. Speaking in the context of the US’ trade tussle with China and others, Trump said he wasn’t thrilled with the Fed’s interest rate hikes. He said that in the trade battle with China, the Fed should be accommodative with its policy. Trump called Beijing a currency manipulator, and said the Euro was being manipulated also. Speaking on Trump’s comments and his new consistency in criticizing the Fed, one analyst said “This is now a serious headwind to the dollar”.

FINSUM: It is true that a constantly strengthening currency is difficult to deal with in a trade war, but that the same time, the Fed’s job is to look at US economic fundamentals. That said, how rate decisions would affect the economy via a trade war do seem like they would be within the Fed’s purview.

(San Francisco)

Talk about comments coming right from the source. Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella went on the record this week telling the market that tech companies should “expect” regulation. Nadella walked through current areas of tech and regulations, like facial recognition or GDPR, and explained their implications for the industry. He said that “As tech becomes more and more pervasive, I think for all of us in the tech industry we should expect—whether it’s on privacy or on cybersecurity or even ethics or AI—government and regulatory bodies to take interest in it”.

FINSUM: We think the writing is on the wall that tech is going to face some form of regulation, especially given that the Trump administration is rather hard on the sector. The question is when, not if.

(New York)

Anyone who pays attention to the bond markets will know that there has been an extraordinary run up in BBB rated bonds since the Financial Crisis. From just $700 bn worth of bonds in 2008, to a whopping $3 tn now. Using the metaphor that such bonds, which are just one rung above junk, are like the dead trees and limbs in the forest before a fire, Barron’s is predicting big problems. The trigger is likely to be the next recession, which would cause many BBB bonds to fall down into the junk category. This would spark mandatory selling by many funds, leading to sharp losses for investors. What’s worse, such bonds, at an average yield of 4.3%, are not compensating investors for this risk, as they have only a 60 bp spread to A rated bonds.

FINSUM: There are bound to be a lot of fallen angels and losses in the next economic downturn. As one analyst summed it up, “With all this dry tinder lying around, it wouldn’t take much to set off a raging fire”.