(New York)

So which stock will lead the way in 2020. Many are of two minds about this question. One the one hand, growth stocks look so pricey that value seems to have a good chance of taking the lead; but on the other, growth has been dominating for so long that it is hard to imagine such stocks not leading. Goldman Sachs say the middle road, or GARP (growth at a reasonable price) stocks, will be the big winners, as they have characteristics of both groups. “During periods of very strong or accelerating growth, investors embrace the risk of low valuation stocks because even lower quality stocks can successfully generate [earnings] growth in rapid GDP growth environments”, says David Kostin, chief US equity strategist at Goldman. Take Google for instance, which trades at 26x earnings, which is only in the 56th percentile for the communications sector, but has strong earnings growth characteristics. Other names to look at include Estee Lauder, MGM Resorts, and Lockheed Martin.

FINSUM: Interesting thesis and we like it in principal. Our issue is that investors just don’t seem to care about price right now.

(New York)

Wall Street analysts area all over the map about where stocks are headed next year. Some firms are bearish (Morgan Stanley), some are neutral, and some are bullish. Put Bank of America in the latter category, as the bank says that stocks are set to surge in the first couple months of 2020. Calling the year “front-loaded”, Bank of America analysts say that the S&P 500 should rise by 5.2% by March 3rd. Michael Hartnett from BAML says that the combination of easing trade worries, diminished Brexit fears, and loose monetary policy should combine to cause a “melt-up” in risk assets.

FINSUM: We like this call. All the fears for the winter seemed to have ebbed, and there will be a few months before election worries really kick in.

(New York)

Breaking away is one of the biggest moments of an advisor’s lives. So much can go wrong and so much can go right. One of the most daunting aspects of breaking away is losing the infrastructure of a large firm, especially the tech infrastructure. So much of the success of breaking away depends on giving your clients a great experience during the transition, so choosing the right infrastructure is crucial. In order to avoid making a mistake, it is crucial to hire a consultant who specializes in the area. They will be able to tailor the tech you should get to the unique needs of your clients and your firm.

FINSUM: This is a very good idea as one of the biggest headaches (and potential sources of nightmarish stories) is making poor tech choices. Checkout LibertyFi, a specialist consultant in the area.

(New York)

Some investors live and die by it, but all should pay attention. The stock-bond ratio is an old investing indicator that can tell you when one asset class may be ready to head higher, and right now it is sending a strong signal. Ned Davis Research says that the ratio tends to bottom before economic recoveries. Therefore, if we have truly hit the bottom of the current economic cycle, then the ratio (S&P 500 divided by the US long-term treasury bond index) should start improving. “Barring an escalation in the trade war, we should see a recovery in early 2020 based on historical lead times”, said Ned Davis Research.

FINSUM: This is a very handy way to think about, and keep track of, risk-on/risk-off.

(New York)

One thing about the wealth management landscape that has never made much sense is how JP Morgan is not early as big a player as one might expect given the overall strength of its brand. Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch hog all the AUM and attention, with JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs mostly on the outside looking in. Well, that may be about to change, as JP Morgan is now planning some big changes to its wealth management business. According to the WSJ “The bank is creating a unit that will combine its U.S. wealth-management operations for affluent clients and the Chase branch network’s financial-advisory business”.

FINSUM: This sounds like a plan to go after mass market wealth management like Morgan Stanley or the Thundering Herd. Could be a big play.