Treasuries returned 3% in Q1 which is its best quarterly performance since 2020. In an article for Bloomberg, Liz McCormick and Michael Mackenzie covered some reasons for why this outperformance should continue. 

Three of the major factors are expectations of increased demand from Japan, a weeklong pause in auctions, and strong inflows from institutional and retail investors amid higher rates and wobbles for the banking system. 

The next major, market-moving event will be the March jobs report on Friday. Some analysts see the potential for weakness in Treasuries if there is a strong report regarding wages and jobs. This could undermine of the catalyst behind the Treasury rally - expectations that the Fed’s hiking cycle is nearly over. On the other hand, Treasuries could rally with a weak report.

Demand for Treasuries spiked amid the bank failures last month. As a result, yields for short-term notes tumbled to their lowest levels of the year with the 2-year Treasury yield declining by a 100 basis points. It also led to market expectations of the Fed terminal rate declining, while odds of the next Fed move being a cut rather than a hike, also jumped higher.

Finsum: Treasuries outperformed in Q1 with a major catalyst being bank failures which led to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets.

After a decade of low rates and abundant central bank liquidity, market conditions are going to be much more challenging over the next decade. According to Jason Xavier, Head of EMEA ETF Capital Markets at Franklin Templeton, these developments mean that a major opportunity is brewing for active fixed income ETFs. He discussed this in a post for Franklin Templeton’s Beyond Bulls & Bears publication.

While most fixed income ETFs are passive, the active category is exploding in response to the need of investors to express various views. In contrast to passive strategies, active ETFs utilize fundamental analysis and have greater discretions on which instruments they can select rather than be limited by an index. Active managers have greater flexibility to respond to a change in market conditions or external catalysts unlike passive managers. 

In the fixed income space, the ETF structure leads to increased price transparency and liquidity especially compared to traditional bond markets which are typically quite opaque. ETFs also give smaller investors access to fixed income opportunities which were typically only available to high net worth investors or institutions. 

In sum, Xavier believes active fixed income ETFs will continue to see growth as they are likely to outperform in more volatile conditions and will lead to increased transparency and liquidity in the fixed income market.

Finsum: Franklin Templeton’s Jason Xavier sees the active fixed income ETF category continuing to rapidly grow as it offers major benefits to investors.

A recent article from Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler discussed the tax benefits of direct indexing. Direct indexing is a strategy that involves directly buying the stocks of an index rather than through a fund. 

This confers several benefits such as allowing investors to gain the benefits of indexing while still being able to customize their portfolio to reflect their values and better fit their needs. Due to this, the category has exploded and gone from a niche offering solely for high net-worth investors to being offered by retail brokerages to customers for as little as $5,000.

However, the strategy is not necessarily for everyone, but it can be particularly useful for those with sizeable assets due to the potential tax benefits. This is because direct indexing results in capital losses in a separate account when stocks drop below their cost bases. The proceeds are then re-invested in stocks with similar profiles. 

This strategy can be particularly useful for investors with high federal and state taxes, large amounts of money invested in direct indexing vs other investments, short-term capital gains, and dealing with a volatile market environment. 

FinSum: Direct indexing comes with several benefits for clients but the most substantial one is the tax savings. However, it’s only worthwhile for a particular group of investors.

Short-term dated options are continuing to grow in popularity which many analysts are warning could have unintended consequences for market stability according to a Reuters article by Saqib Iqbal Ahmed.

The fastest growing segment is zero days to expiry (ODTE) options, where traders are looking to profit from small, intraday market moves. Most options are based on indices, popular ETFs, or single stocks. As of March 2022, the daily notional value of all ODTE trades had exceeded $1 trillion.

The contracts are popular among buyers, because small moves in the underlying instrument can result in huge moves for its derivatives. For sellers, the appeal is that the options decay in value and the trade can be closed at the end of the day. 

However, many warn that large positions in these options could set off a ‘squeeze’ in the event of an unexpected, intraday move. This would cause option sellers to take large losses and potentially force hedging which could exacerbate the move in the underlying instruments. According to JPMorgan, it would be a similar dynamic to the ‘Volmageddon’ crash of 2018 when many inverse volatility products crashed due to a large spike in the VIX.

Finsum: A new threat to market stability is the rise of ODTE options which are becoming very popular with retail and institutional traders. However, they do have the potential to exacerbate large, intraday market moves. 

According to Daniil Shapiro of Cerulli Associates, there is a major product development opportunity for active fixed income ETFs in the coming years. A variety of factors are behind this segment’s growing popularity including the increasing acceptance of the ETF structure, growth of advisors who are comfortable with fixed income ETFs, and rising rates which lead to increased structural demand for fixed income products.

The report was compiled by Cerulli Associates based on polling of financial advisors and was covered by Kathie O’Donnel in an article on Pensions & Investment.

The major takeaway is that use of fixed income ETFs by advisors is rapidly growing with 70% reporting use in 2022, up from 63% in 2021. Most ETF issuers pointed to greater advisor acceptance of the product and institutional demand as drivers of the ETF market. Among issuers, 66% see fixed income as their primary focus which exceeded equities at 57%. 

Overall, this survey reveals that there continues to be opportunity for ETF issuers in the active fixed income space, given rising demand. While there are plenty of options in passive fixed income, there are relatively less active options. 

Finsum: The fixed income ETF category is rapidly expanding. Within the space, passive is saturated but plenty of opportunity remain for active managers especially given expectations of rising demand in the coming years.