Wealth Management

High net-worth clients may be facing a major issue due to the upcoming expiration of the 2017 tax cuts after 2025. This will mean the expiration of higher federal gift and estate tax exemptions. The exemptions, which encompass tax-free caps on gifts during life or at death, will be $13.6 million per individual or $27.2 million for spouses in 2024 but will be cut by 50% in 2026. 

 

This will mean that many more high net-worth clients will be impacted by the estate tax. And, this is the time to begin planning around this new reality given that many estate tax planning strategies take months or even more than a year to implement. 

 

Some married couples can take advantage of the current higher levels of exemption by removing assets from their estate via lifetime gifts. According to Robert Dietz, the national director of tax research at Bernstein Private Wealth Management in Minneapolis,“The reality is you have to give away more than half to see any benefit from the gift in terms of the exclusion going away.” And for clients uncomfortable making these gifts now, they can keep control of their assets by opening a trust. 


Finsum: The expiration of the 2017 tax bill means that high net-worth clients will have to grapple with much lower exemptions on tax-free giving. 

 

Thanks mainly to a blend of enhanced technology, lower trading costs, and a growing appetite for personalized investment strategies, direct indexing may become a term as common with investors as mutual funds and ETFs. A recent article in USA Today highlights this trend, and when a broadly read news source such as this writes about a subject, it’s usually a clear sign it has begun to resonate with the masses.

 

So, what is driving this surge in popularity? The answer lies in the convergence of investor preferences and improved platform capabilities. While investors are always keen on the potential for total return, they also seek flexibility, cost efficiency, and favorable tax treatment—benefits that direct indexing is uniquely positioned to provide.

 

Direct indexing allows investors to tailor their holdings to reflect personal values or strategic preferences, such as ESG considerations or specific sector exposures. Moreover, the tax optimization potential of direct indexing allows for more efficient management of capital gains taxes, a feature particularly attractive to savvy investors looking to maximize their after-tax returns.

 

As direct indexing becomes more widely adopted by advisors and platforms, we’ll watch with interest to see if this investment approach moves from the domain of the affluent and the institutional to the everyday investor.


Finsum: Direct indexing's spread to lower account balances could make it as popular a product type as mutual funds and ETFs.

 

Since the yield on the 10-year inched above 5% in October, we have seen a relentless rally in Treasuries. According to Bank of America, this rally is due to the increasing likelihood of an upcoming Fed rate cut and is just getting started. It eventually forecasts the 10-year yield falling another 200 basis points based on historical precedent of dramatic declines in yield during the interim period between the Fed’s final rate hike and first rate cut. 

 

There have been five hiking cycles since 1988. Each saw a major rally in Treasuries once the hikes were complete. The largest decline was 163 basis points, while the average decline was 107 basis points. The drop in yields tended to abate once the Fed began cutting rates. This cycle Bank of America sees the 10-year yield dropping to 2.25% by May 2024 which is when the first hikes are expected to take place. 

 

Such a decline in Treasury yields would have major implications for other asset classes as well. The researchers also warned that this prediction could be impacted by ‘lingering inflationary pressures. Interestingly, the bank’s strategists have a different outlook as they expect the 10-year period to end next year at 4.25%, which indicates minor change from current levels. 


Finsum: Bank of America shared historical research which shows that the 10-year yield tends to experience weakness during the interim between the Fed’s final hike and its first rate cut. 

 

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