Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan believes the long-observed four-year cryptocurrency cycle may be breaking down, suggesting this cycle could be “bigger and last longer” than expected. Traditionally, crypto markets follow a rhythm of three bullish years followed by a correction, often tied to Bitcoin halving events or macroeconomic shifts. 

Hougan argues that despite recent regulatory headwinds, the foundational infrastructure—like stablecoins, DeFi, and tokenization—has quietly strengthened and is now poised to accelerate. He likens the industry to a “coiled spring,” ready to expand rapidly as regulatory barriers are lifted, especially under more crypto-friendly political leadership. 

While he acknowledges the potential for a correction driven by speculative excess, Hougan believes any downturns will be more muted and short-lived than in past cycles. 

Finsum: With maturing markets and a broader, more value-focused investor base, could 2026 bring another crypto winter—or simply the next phase of a longer growth era.