The crisis in commercial real estate (CRE) is starting to have knock-on effects on banks according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In an interview with 60 Minutes, he remarked, “It feels like a problem we’ll be working on for years… it’s a sizable problem.” He added that most of the negative impact would be concentrated on smaller or regional banks who have greater exposure to CRE.

Already, the Fed stepped in following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in June of last year to prevent further damage that could impact the broader economy. In addition to this stress, banks are dealing with an inverted yield curve which has made lending less profitable, and it has led to the uncomfortable position of paying out high rates on deposits while holding loans made at much lower rates in the past. 

Ultimately, the crux of the problem is that demand for office space has declined due to more companies adopting remote work or hybrid arrangements. According to estimates, there could be 1 billion square feet of unused office space by the next decade. Another cause for concern is that over the next few years, loans will mature and need to be refinanced in a much more difficult environment. Given these bleak fundamentals, it’s inevitable that lenders will take losses.

Finsum: In a 60 Minutes interview, Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that weakness in commercial real estate was starting to impact the banking sector. Already, the Fed intervened last year to prevent contagion following the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. 

Lower prices for crude oil and natural gas will lead to a more than 30% decline in earnings for the energy sector in Q4. In contrast, the S&P 500 is expected to see a 1.4% drop in earnings. However, these numbers are somewhat skewed by the 7 largest, mega cap tech stocks which have seen a 53.7% increase in earnings. Subtracting these stocks from the S&P 500 reveals earnings decline of 10.5% for the index.

Overall, energy will see the biggest decline in earnings among all sectors. The weakness was recently highlighted by top-line misses for Exxon Mobil and Chevron. The biggest losses are expected in Oil & Gas Refining and Marketing with a 63% contraction in earnings, followed by Integrated Oil & Gas at -34%, and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production with a 20% drop. On the other side, Oil & Gas Equipment & Services and Oil & gas Storage & Transportation, both saw earnings growth.

Many producers are dealing with a bearish outlook for oil and gas prices due to weaker demand from Europe and China despite elevated geopolitical risks. At the same time, these producers are dealing with higher costs due to inflation, creating incentives to increase revenue by adding production. 

Finsum: As Q4 earnings season enters its later stages, it’s clear that the energy sector will see the biggest decline in earnings. Here are some of the major factors behind the drop. 

Interest in alternative assets continues to grow. For many, it’s become a core part of their portfolio along with equities and bonds based on the theory that it can increase diversification, reduce risk, and deliver higher returns in high inflation scenarios. 

In response, asset managers are introducing new products at a fevered pace. Examples include bitcoin ETFs, private credit, and infrastructure funds. Advisors have the task of figuring out which of these products will help their clients and become a part of their allocations. 

Some important considerations are properly explained to clients that many alternative investments mean sacrificing liquidity for a multiyear period and are only justified if investors are willing to hold for the long term. Further, focusing on returns is not the right metric, instead these products are more about dampening portfolio volatility and providing a source of non-correlated returns. 

Therefore, the biggest impediment for more adoption of alternatives is education. Many might not have a deep understanding of these strategies and have varying risk tolerances. Advisors should consider allocations to alternatives on a case-by-case basis and also gradually increase exposure levels to gauge comfort levels. 

Finsum: There is an explosion of alternative investment options available to advisors. Here are some tips on how to navigate this expanding landscape.

Assets under management, tied to model portfolios, are forecast to exceed $10 trillion by 2025. Some reasons for the category’s growth include increasing awareness and comfort among clients, a wider range of options that are enabling customization, and the advantages for financial advisors.

Currently, 70% of model portfolios are asset allocation models. Some advisors choose a hybrid approach with some of the portfolio allocated according to models with some portion remaining discretionary. Another important choice is whether there is an open or closed architecture. With an open architecture, advisors can allocate to a variety of funds, while closed architecture means that funds are from an individual asset manager. 

A growing segment is outcome-oriented models which can help clients achieve a precise goal such as generating income, reducing risk, or minimizing taxes. This is another way that model portfolios can achieve greater customization while still retaining the core benefits for advisors. 

Overall, model portfolios are rapidly gaining traction due to their ability to provide sophisticated solutions for advisors and clients. For advisors, it frees up more time and resources to spend on growing and managing the business while also deepening the relationship with clients. 

Finsum: Model portfolios are forecast to exceed $10 trillion in assets in 2025. Here are some of the reasons the category is growing so fast. 

AllianceBernstein believes that the rally in fixed income will continue due to central banks cutting rates. Thus, investors should take advantage of the opportunity to lock in yields at these levels. 

The firm sees the Fed as remaining on hold until the second-half of the year. It sees the current environment as opportune given that rates will decline over the intermediate-term, while yields remain historically attractive in the interim. 

Despite expectations of slowing economic growth in the second-half of the year, AllianceBernstein isn’t concerned of a major downturn in the credit cycle as earnings remain robust, while household finances remain in strong shape despite some stress in recent months. 

Overall, the firm recommends that investors consider getting fully invested into fixed income especially given that many investors are in cash or short-duration bonds. This strategy made sense over the last couple of years but no longer does given where we are in the cycle. 

Instead, investors need to increase duration given its base case expectation of slowing economic growth and materially lower rates over the next 12 to 18 months. It also recommends corporate credit and securitized debt given attractive yields and solid fundamentals.

Finsum: AllianceBernstein is bullish on fixed income in 2024 due to its expectations that the Fed will cut and the economy will slow. It recommends taking advantage of yields while they remain high and extending duration.  

Direct indexing combines the best elements of running a traditional portfolio with passively investing in indexes. This means that investors can reap the benefits of passive investing such as low costs, diversification, and proven long-term outperformance. Yet, they can still take advantage of tax loss harvesting which isn’t possible through investing in ETFs or mutual funds. 

This is because direct indexing leverages technology to recreate an index within an individual account. This technology will also regularly scan the portfolio for tax loss harvesting opportunities. Losing positions are sold and then replaced with positions that have similar factor scores to ensure that the index continues to be tracked. Over a whole year, this will lower an investors’ tax liability.

According to research, direct indexing will lead to an additional average annual return of 1.1%. Further, various direct indexing providers can optimize a portfolio according to an investors’ specific tax situation by offering various scenarios and the subsequent impact on capital gains. From an advisors’ perspective, many clients are interested in reducing taxes and aligning their investments with personal values. Direct indexing can help with both goals which means it can be quite potent in terms of recruiting and retaining clients. 

Finsum: Direct indexing can increase an investors’ average annual return by reducing tax liabilities. This is in addition to the typical benefits of passive investing such as diversification and low costs. 

Model portfolios represent an effective strategy for financial advisors to enhance efficiency within their practices by offering a standardized approach to portfolio construction and analytics. Models simplify the portfolio design process, allowing advisors to save significant research time and scale their services more effectively. Moreover, uniformity in portfolio construction promotes consistency, reduces biases, and improves regulatory compliance.

However, advisors must exercise due diligence in evaluating the credentials of model portfolio providers, considering aspects such as investment philosophy, historical performance, and associated fees. It is also essential to maintain flexibility for customization to meet the unique needs and risk profiles of individual clients.

While model portfolios offer considerable efficiency and informed decision-making advantages, their successful integration into a financial advisory practice requires careful consideration and a client-focused strategy. When utilized judiciously, model portfolios can significantly contribute to a financial advisory practice's operational efficiency and client satisfaction levels, albeit not as a universal solution but as a valuable component of a broader strategic framework.

Finsum: Explore how model portfolios boost advisory efficiency with standardized construction, analytics, and compliance, while ensuring due diligence and customization.

For income-seeking investors, navigating the often volatile capital markets can be a tightrope walk between yield and stability. Enter income-producing ETFs, a potent blend of diversification and dependable returns. These innovative funds package high-yielding assets into a single, tradable security, offering investors a steady income stream without the burden of individual security selection.

One of the key strengths of income-producing ETFs lies in their inherent diversification. By spreading investments across a basket of assets, they mitigate the risks associated with individual maturities or underperformance. This eliminates the headache of reinvesting maturing bonds at potentially lower rates, a common pitfall for fixed-income investors.

Furthermore, income-producing ETFs typically hold less cash than their mutual fund counterparts. This seemingly minor distinction translates to a potentially significant advantage: reduced cash drag. Unlike mutual funds, which often require a cash cushion to facilitate redemptions, ETFs minimize uninvested capital, ensuring a greater portion of your portfolio actively generates income within its intended asset class.

Financial advisors seeking to craft reliable income streams for their clients should consider income-producing ETFs as a possible solution. They provide instant diversification, mitigate reinvestment risk, and maximize income potential through reduced cash drag.

Finsum: Income-producing ETFs can provide both diversification and steady returns with reduced reinvestment risk and cash drag.

When financial advisors contemplate switching to a new broker-dealer, the due diligence process typically begins with evaluating compensation structures and the range of available products. However, one critical factor that deserves equal attention is the caliber of the advisors within the prospective broker-dealer. The professional community you join can significantly influence your growth and development.

The collective quality of advisors within a broker-dealer reflects the firm's standards and commitment to excellence. Engaging with a new cohort of professionals presents opportunities to gain fresh insights, foster meaningful professional relationships, and refine business practices. It is a chance to challenge your status quo and infuse new life into your approach by learning from the successes and strategies of others.

Before making a transition, advisors should seek to understand the professional dynamics of the broker-dealer's network. This includes the expertise of the other advisors, the collaborative environment, and the overall knowledge-sharing culture. Evaluating whether the new network encourages continuous learning and improvement can be a decisive factor in ensuring the move aligns with an advisor's long-term goals and values. Thus, joining a broker-dealer with a vibrant and skilled community of advisors is not merely a change in business affiliation; it's a strategic step towards personal and professional enrichment.

Finsum: Researching the caliber of advisors within the broker-dealer you are considering joining can pay greater dividends than you might think.

The era of high yields has led to a significant boost of inflows into fixed income ETFs. Last year, short duration bond ETFs were the biggest recipient of inflows, but this started to change at the end of last year. Inflation started to move closer to the Fed’s 2% target, and the market began to price in rate cuts in 2024.

So, investors have been moving further out in the curve into intermediate and longer-duration fixed income ETFs to lock in yields for a longer period of time. One example of this can be seen in BondBloxx ETFs.

For instance, the BondBloxx Bloomberg Ten Year Target Duration US Treasury ETF has seen $49 million of inflows YTD. This is more than 50% of net inflows over all of last year. In contrast, the BondBloxx Bloomberg Six Month Target Duration US Treasury ETF only has $17 million of net inflows YTD, while it had $904 million of inflows last year. 

BondBloxx has also seen similar flows from its 1 Year and 2 Year duration-focused Treasury ETFs. To appeal to fixed income investors seeking longer duration exposure, the firm recently launched 3 high-yield corporate bond ETFs with time frames of 1-5 years, 5-10 years, and more than 10 years. 

Finsum: Flows into fixed income ETFs remain strong in 2024, but one definite change is that investors are favoring intermediate and longer-duration ETFs in anticipation of the Fed cutting rates.