There have been concerns that the housing market could be on the verge of a decline given the stress created by high interest rates and a weakening economy. However, one reason to be sanguine about the housing market despite near-term headwinds is that household balance sheets are in strong shape.

It’s sufficient to dismiss alarmists who see another housing crash on the scale of the financial crisis and Great Recession in 2008. While economic headwinds have started to damage the standing of renters, young people, and those with lower FICO scores, there is no indication that homeowners are in a troubled position.

In fact, bankruptcy and foreclosure rates have remained low even after the expiration of the CARES Act moratorium. This is a departure from the Great Recession when many households were overly leveraged, and higher rates led to a surge in foreclosures. Another major difference is that regulations have led to higher lending standards and the disappearance of exotic mortgages. 

Following the housing crisis, most buyers gravitated towards 30-year fixed mortgages. Periods of ultra-loose monetary policy also led to major waves of refinancing. Cumulatively, this means that the vast majority of households continue to enjoy low rates and have seen the value of their homes rise. 

Finsum: Inflation and higher rates have been damaging to certain segments of the population. Yet, homeowners are an exception as they have locked in low rates, while showing little indications of stress.

The rally in bonds since Fed Chair Powell’s pivot at the December FOMC meeting has been fully wiped out following recent economic data and a more hawkish than expected FOMC at the February meeting. 

Over the last month, forecasts for the timing and number of rate cuts in 2024 have been severely curtailed. Entering the year, many were looking for 6 rate cuts with the first one in spring. Now, the consensus forecast is for 3 cuts, starting in July. This is consistent with FOMC members’ dot plot at its last meeting.

The narrative is clearly changing with some chatter that the Fed may not cut at all. Prashant Newnaha, senior rates strategist at TD Securities Inc., noted that “January CPI is a game changer — the narrative that Fed disinflation provided scope for insurance cuts is clearly now on the chopping board. There is now a real risk that price pressures will begin to shift higher. The Fed can’t cut into this. This should provide momentum for further bond declines.”

Given these developments, Amy Xie Patrick, the head of income strategies at Pendal Group, favors corporate credit over Treasuries. She views the strong US economy as providing a tailwind to risky assets, while making Treasuries less attractive. 

Finsum: Bonds have erased their rally following the December FOMC meeting when Chair Powell signaled that rate cuts win 2024. Here are some of the drivers and thoughts from strategists. 

Bonds and stocks weakened following a stronger than expected January CPI report which led traders to reduce bets on the number of rate cuts in 2024. The 10Y Treasury yield climbed 15 basis points, while the 2Y yield was up 19 basis points. 

On a monthly basis, prices were up 0.3% vs expectations of 0.2%. Annually, there was an uptick at 3.1% vs expectations of 2.9%. Food and shelter prices were major contributors with gains of 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively. Along with the recent jobs report, the data undermined the notion that the Fed would be turning dovish later this year. The anticipation of a Fed pivot has been a major catalyst, fueling strength in equities and fixed income over the last couple of months. 

Instead, the status quo of ‘higher for longer’ remains. Some investors are now anticipating that the 10Y yield will rise further. According to Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer at Regan Capital, “Bond yields have not peaked, and we believe that a 10-year Treasury yield with a 5-handle is more likely than a 3-handle in 2024. Persistent inflation, full employment and strong growth may delay the Fed’s rate cuts.”

Finsum: Stocks and bonds declined as the January CPI came in hotter than expected. Fed futures showed traders reduced estimates for the number of rate cuts in 2024.

Any advisor who is serious about acquiring high net-worth clients’ needs a solid marketing strategy. This is because there is intense competition to land these clients, and it’s necessary to differentiate your services in the marketplace.

The first step is to clarify what exactly you are trying to accomplish with your marketing plan. This can include increasing awareness of your practice, building trust with prospects, branding, creating credibility, and highlighting your expertise and knowledge. 

Next, it’s essential to understand the needs, goals, and challenges of your target audience. Some themes that are likely to resonate with wealthy clients are areas like legacy planning, minimizing tax liabilities, or superior levels of service. 

Building authority and credibility is an important prerequisite when it comes to landing wealthy clients. Some ways to do this are through interviews with journalists, being a guest on a podcast or program, collaborating with other professionals, and building a following on social media by regularly sharing valuable information. 

During the process of converting a prospect into a client, advisors should ensure that all interactions with prospects and full of value with the intention to create trust. This starts from the first interaction with a client and should always remain a primary ingredient in every point of engagement.

Finsum: It’s quite competitive and difficult for advisors to land wealthy clients. Here are some tips on how to be successful. 

A recent survey of financial advisors showed that separately managed accounts (SMAs) are seeing more traction in comparison to model portfolios. Only 22% of advisors plan to increase reliance on model portfolios, a 5% drop from the previous year. In contrast, allocations to SMAs are forecast to reach 26% in 2025 from 18% currently. The trend is more pronounced among advisors serving high net-worth clients who see allocations reaching 31% in 2025 from 23% now.

Some of the reasons cited by advisors in the survey for less interest in model portfolios were higher fees, underperformance, a need for customization, and more investment options. The survey is an indication that model portfolio uptake and growth have stalled as only 29% of advisors using model portfolios report increasing use over the past year. 

The survey was conducted by Cogent Syndicated in October and November of last year. The firm surveyed 403 registered financial advisors with an active book of at least $5 million. The report suggests that model portfolio providers are losing ground as many advisors and clients are gravitating towards direct indexing and SMAs due to their customization and tax optimization, while model portfolios fall short in these regards despite offering other advantages for advisors and clients. 

Finsum: A survey of financial advisors showed that model portfolio adoption has stalled. Here are why advisors are gravitating towards SMAs instead.

Having a steady source of income during retirement is a universal goal. According to a new research paper from Wharton, investors should consider a deferred income annuity product in their retirement accounts as this has shown to improve welfare for all groups when accounting for sex and education level.

Optimally, Americans would wait until they turn 70 before starting to receive Social Security payments, as it would lead to the biggest monthly check. Yet, most don’t for various reasons including a need for additional income, not wanting to work till this advanced age, and failure to plan properly. 

One potential solution is a deferred income annuity which would allow prospective retirees to bridge the gap and create extra income in their 60s. This would increase the chances that they would be able to not claim benefits till age 70 and maximize income from Social Security. 

These findings are especially relevant following the passage of the SECURE 2.0 Act in December 2022 which was created so employers would offer some sort of lifetime income payment option in 401(k) plans. The paper adds that options should also include a variable deferred income annuity with equity exposure in addition to fixed annuities. 

Finsum: Ideally, retirees would be able to put off receiving Social Security payments until they are 70. One way to increase the odds of this are to include annuities in retirement plans to create income during interim years. 

LPL Financial was higher following its Q4 earnings report which showed the company exceeding analysts’ consensus forecast. For the quarter, it generated $3.51 per share in earnings which topped estimates of $3.39 per share. Total revenue was up 13% to reach $2.6 billion, while advisor revenue was up 20%. It also added 256 net new advisors and now has a total of 22,660 advisors.

The results were strong across the board as it saw a 22% increase in total advisory and brokerage assets, reaching $1.35 trillion. Further, it brought in $25 billion in new assets in the fourth quarter, highlighting the firm’s success in growth via acquisitions and recruitment. Another source of growth has been enterprise, where LPL manages a wealth management platform for banks, credit unions, and other institutions. Recently, it was announced that LPL would become the brokerage and wealth management platform for Prudential Financial which counts $50 billion in assets and 2,600 financial advisors. 

The firm is also looking to expand with the launch of LPL Private Wealth Management which intends to hire advisors as employees rather than as independent contractors. It believes its multi-channel approach is a differentiator and key to its success as it means the firm can appeal to all types of advisors. 

Finsum: LPL reported strong Q4 and full-year earnings which exceeded analysts’ estimates and sent the stock higher. 

Until recently, direct indexing has typically been applied for equities. Its benefits in terms of creating after-tax alpha and increased customization are well-known. However, advisors should also be aware that direct indexing can also be leveraged for fixed income portfolios, and it can be especially impactful for clients nearing retirement. 

Direct indexing with equities means that investors own the actual constituents of an index rather than a fund. This leads to opportunities for tax-loss harvesting and personalization. Similarly, direct indexing with fixed income means that investors own the actual bonds held by a fund which also allows for tax-loss harvesting and increased personalization.

These portfolios can be optimized based on desired characteristics of credit quality, duration, and maturity. Essentially, this creates a custom, bond ladder portfolio with various fixed income securities.

Research also shows that tax-loss harvesting has more potential benefits in a fixed income portfolio. This is because there are proceeds from maturing bonds and coupons that can be used for reinvestment or lowering a cost basis. Further, the bond ladder can also be optimized based on an investors’ tax rate and/or location, to maximize accretive, after-tax returns. 

Finsum: By now, most are familiar with direct indexing for equities. Now, we are starting to see it applied to fixed income portfolios where the benefits are possibly greater. 

One consequence of the outperformance of alternative assets in recent years is increasing democratization of the asset class. According to BNY Mellon, this trend is being driven by the need for higher long-term returns given longer life expectancies. Many governments, around the world, are changing guidelines to increase access to these investment options. 

Increasing access to alternative investments also fits with many governments’ ESG objectives. In turn, alternative asset managers are also working to structure their products to appeal to a different market.

The bank also recommends considering offering alternatives in retirement plans. Until recently, investing in alternative assets like private equity, private real estate, and hedge funds were limited to institutional and ultra-high net-worth investors. 

In the past couple of years, alternative assets have delivered positive returns in an environment where both fixed income and equities have struggled amid a hawkish Federal Reserve and raging inflation. Ideally, the asset class would lead to more resilient portfolios by reducing volatility and delivering non-correlated returns. 

Some drawbacks are increased complexity, higher costs, and reduced liquidity. The bank also adds that investors need to be educated about alternative investments in order to fully understand these products and take advantage of their benefits. 

Finsum: BNY Mellon sees continued inflows into alternative assets due to strong performance in recent years. It sees increasing democratization of the space and potentially even the inclusion of alternative investments in retirement plans. 

The number of new advisors is not keeping up with retirements and attrition. According to Cerulli, the number of new advisors only increased by 2,706 in the previous years. This is troubling given that the firm projects that nearly 110,000 advisors will be retiring over the next decade. 

This amounts to nearly 38% of all advisors and 41% of total assets. These numbers and trends highlight the need for the industry to do a better job of attracting and retaining fresh talent. The crux of the issue seems to not be recruitment but that there is a 72% rookie failure rate. Some recommendations are growing and nurturing a talent pipeline, better communication of the role and responsibilities of a financial advisor, and a more structured training program which entails ramping up responsibilities.

Ideally, newer advisors would start in roles focused on operations and improving the practice before shifting into a producer role. Cerulli recommends that seniors advisors’ team with new advisors and provide them with experience in engaging with clients and gathering assets before they transition to more independent roles. It notes that many advisors who build successful, long-term careers were the recipients of such mentorship and guidance at the start of their careers. 

Finsum: 2023 was another year of poor recruitment figures for the financial advisor’s industry. Here are some recommendations on improving the success rate of new advisors.