Value stocks have consistently underperformed growth stocks for many years. Yet, there are some signs that 2024 could herald a change in trend. Underperformance in value stocks was exacerbated in 2023 as many growth stocks, in the tech sector, saw huge gains due to excitement around artificial intelligence (AI). 

However, this could present a silver lining for value stocks as they are historically cheap, and mean-reversion could lead to solid gains. Further, growth stocks have become quite expensive, following the most recent rally, and there could be rotation into value especially if earnings don’t meet investors’ lofty expectations.

Value stocks are primarily comprised of healthcare, industrial, and financial stocks. A major impediment over the past year has been the struggles in the banking system due to high rates and an inverted yield curve. This means that lending is not as profitable, while banks are paying high rates on deposits but holding loans that were made when rates were much lower. But, there could be some relief coming as the Fed signals it will look to cut rates later this year. 

In addition to the path of monetary policy, the economy re-accelerating would be another positive catalyst for the sector. Many value stocks are economically sensitive and would see an increase in top and bottom-line numbers. However if investors are bearish on the economy but want exposure to value, they can stick with utilities and consumer staples which would outperform in a lower growth circumstance. 

Finsum: Value stocks underperformed in 2023. Here’s why 2024 is shaping up to be better, and under what circumstances, value will outperform growth. 

The last couple of years have been a wild ride for energy markets including developments like oil prices briefly going negative during the pandemic, Saudi Arabia releasing supply to discipline OPEC members, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, etc. While some volatility and uncertainty is assured given geopolitics, investors in the sector will be rewarded for having a long-term mindset and focus on fundamentals.

This includes being aware of the trends shaping the industry. In terms of oil, it’s clear that supply and demand is trumping geopolitical risk. This is evident as oil prices remain under $80 per barrel despite a large increase in MidEast tensions and the war between Russia and Ukraine continuing. More relevant to price is that production remains plentiful, especially from the US, while demand has been less strong than expected due to weakness from China and Europe. 

Another trend is that M&A should continue in the sector following a slew of deals at the end of last year. Large producers are eager to lock down high-quality properties. Valuations also remain attractive, while companies in the sector have large amounts of cash on the balance sheet following years of capital discipline. 

Finally, investments in renewables will continue despite recent struggles. The IEA is forecasting that 460 gigawatts of renewable energy production will be added. In the US, the EIA sees wind and solar production surpassing coal for the first time. 

Finsum: Oil prices have remained under $80 per barrel despite a slew of geopolitical risks due to robust supply and weaker than expected demand. 

Financial markets have been quite strong over the last few months on the prospects of an economy that continues to defy skeptics and evade a recession, falling inflation, and a dovish Fed. But there are some signs that the market’s ascent is being interrupted by a bout of volatility due to some high-profile earnings misses, a more hawkish than expected FOMC, and flagging momentum in the labor market. Given the uncertainty around the Fed, an upcoming election, and the importance of economic data in the coming months, this volatility is likely to persist.

This volatility is uncomfortable for investors. However, for direct indexing investors, there is a silver lining as volatility leads to opportunities to harvest tax losses. Direct indexing entails reconstructing an index within an account by owning the actual holdings rather than a fund. 

This approach combines the benefits of passive investing - low costs, diversification, and proven performance - with the ability to harvest tax losses that is possible with individual stocks but not by investing in an ETF or mutual fund. Direct indexing platforms will automatically scan portfolios on a regular basis for tax loss harvesting opportunities. These positions are then replaced with positions with similar factor scores to ensure that the index continues to be tracked.

Finsum: There are some signs that the market rally is ending and that the markets could be entering a period of volatility. One advantage of direct indexing is that it is able to harvest tax losses during this period. 

Investing in the right technology has the power to create a more efficient, scalable, and successful practice. The latest disruptive technology is artificial intelligence (AI) which will affect many different parts of a practice and is already impacting specific areas. 

Advisors who are able to effectively leverage AI will see a material and quantifiable impact in terms of generating leads, conversion rates, retention, and reducing time spent on operations and management. Client engagement is an area where advisors are already applying AI to generate positive outcomes and deliver more personalized outreach and services.

Ideally, an advisor would be able to spend hours learning and preparing for a client meeting. In reality, this is not possible given constraints and other responsibilities. However, with AI, an advisor can effectively organize and review all of a clients’ data, including notes from previous conversations, and find insights to deliver a more unique and valuable experience. 

AI can also help sort through all of the data generated by an advisor or practice and find hidden opportunities or potential risks. They can also provide guidance in terms of strategic decisions and long-term planning. It’s recommended to use a specialist AI model for these purposes given that it’s trained in relevant data and adheres to regulatory standards. 

Finsum: AI is the latest disruptive technology that will certainly impact multiple aspects of an advisors’ practice. Here is how it’s already affecting client engagement. 

Stocks were lower, while Treasuries caught a bid following the latest FOMC meeting which was deemed hawkish despite the Fed holding rates as expected. In essence, Chair Powell’s remarks during the press conference made it clear that the central bank is not willing to cut yet.

In response, markets were in a risk-off mood. Fed futures showed that the odds of a rate cut at the next meeting declined from 40% to 36%, while the odds of the first cut happening in May increased to 59% from 54%. 

Overall, the policy statement and Powell’s press conference underscored that the Fed is moving in a more dovish direction, just not as fast as the market’s desired pace. The policy statement expressed that there is a better balance in terms of employment and inflation goals. However, before cutting rates, it wants to see even more progress on the inflation front. In essence, the resilient economy and labor market mean that the Fed has more latitude to continue its battle against inflation before pivoting to support the economy and risk re-igniting inflationary pressures.

Rather than hawkish or dovish, its current stance can be characterized as ‘data-dependent’. Some of the important releases, prior to the March FOMC meeting, will be the January and February employment data and consumer price indexes. 

Finsum: The Fed held rates steady but came out slightly more hawkish than expected. This led to the odds of a rate cut in March slightly dropping, but the bigger takeaway is that the Fed sees inflation and employment risks as being balanced and remains data dependent. 

FINRA and SEC regulators have increased enforcement and oversight of Regulation Best Interest (Reg BI). Recent focus has been on increasing compliance within the sales process. There have been several FINRA actions to punish firms for improper supervision to ensure the fiduciary standard is being followed.

The pace of these actions and enforcement has gradually picked up since the moratorium on enforcement ended. Further, regulators have also made public comments emphasizing the need for more aggressive action. 

In 2023, there were FINRA enforcements following only 8 in 2022. The agency has also started to impose personal fines for sales violations or requiring advisors to pay back a portion of losses. Prior, regulatory agencies would see compensation and damages from the firm rather than individuals. This change in strategy is a reflection that they are trying to deter violations of the fiduciary standard at the individual and firm level.

Looking ahead, comments from SEC and FINRA officials reveal that this is only the beginning. According to FINRA’s acting head of enforcement, Chris Kelly, ‘more and more’ cases involving all four pillars of Reg BI which includes disclosure, care, conflict of interest, and compliance are likely to be filed. 

Finsum: FINRA and SEC regulators are increasing Reg BI enforcement. They are targeting firms for improper sales supervision and punishing brokers for violations.

Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO) has been quite pessimistic on private credit and sees major downside if rates don’t fall as expected. This is contrary to many in the industry embracing private credit like Blackstone and Apollo Global. 

In contrast, PIMCO is looking to take advantage of the crisis that it’s forecasting. It also has larger implications for the economy and markets given that private credit has taken the bulk of risky lending which used to come from investment banks. 

PIMCO’s thesis rests on the US economy slowing in 2024 and a hard landing in Europe and the UK. If the economy remains resilient, then rates are unlikely to fall as much as expected. This would put stress on private markets where there is less transparency and price discovery. The firm believes that many borrowers are quite risky and quite exposed to a decline in revenues. They believe that about a quarter of private credit portfolios could face difficulties if rates don’t fall or are less than expected. 

PIMCO spies an opportunity if private lenders face pressure from its creditors based on portfolio values dropping. This would allow PIMCO to squeeze out other lenders by buying into debt at a discount. It would also continue a trend of the firm moving away from its roots of fixed income investing and increasingly into alternative assets. This segment has grown from $32 billion in 2016 to $170 billion in the first half of 2023. 

Finsum: PIMCO is bearish on private credit due to concerns about balance sheet risk with risky borrowers, bearishness on the economy in 2024, and the market pre-emptively pricing in a dovish Fed.

Cohen & Steers believes that 2024 will mark a turnaround in private real estate following years of being plagued by issues like a drop in office occupancies and high interest rates. The firm emphasizes that real estate remains a cyclical business with many indications that we are near a trough in the cycle. It acknowledges that some pain is still coming as large amounts of debt will mature in the next couple of years and require refinancing, likely leading to more defaults and distressed assets. 

However, this will present an attractive opportunity for investors according to Cohen & Steers. The firm sees private real estate following the same trajectory as public REITs, lower prices in the interim before a gradual recovery as the Fed shifts to cutting rates later in the year. 

The firm favors newer properties in the sunbelt over older properties in coastal markets. It sees migration out of high-cost cities and into the suburbs continuing, facilitated by technology and remote work opportunities. 

In terms of various segments, it sees less opportunity in Industrial properties due to high prices and indications of a supply glut and lower occupancy levels. It sees office properties as continuing to struggle given unfavorable secular trends. Specifically, it recommends staying away from older office properties which were built for a different time and workforce.

Finsum: Cohen & Steers believes that private real estate is near the bottom, and that buyers at these levels will be rewarded in the long-term. 

With a strong recovery in fixed income over the past couple of months, fixed income fund managers are looking to generate inflows from the nearly $6 trillion that is sitting in money market funds. Some portions will certainly move into fixed income especially if interest rates start to move lower, and investors look to move further out on the curve to take advantage of still attractive yields.

Due to this, active fixed income funds delivered their biggest monthly returns in decades, leading to a surge of inflows. Recent economic data and chatter from FOMC officials have also been supportive of the asset class.

The challenge for managers is the explosion in active fixed income funds over the last few years, leading to price wars for market share and consolidation. Many are from the largest asset managers like Vanguard, State Street, and Blackrock, which have very low costs. Funds that aren’t able to sufficiently attract inflows over this period will only face more difficulties in the future in remaining viable. 

According to Rich Kushel, the head of Blackrock’s portfolio management group, “We are in a winner-takes-a-lot moment. If you’re truly adding real alpha, there will always be a place for you in this industry. For the folks who haven’t, you might as well buy [the benchmark].”

Finsum: There is nearly $6 trillion on the sidelines. Some of this will move into fixed income especially if rates start dropping. There will be intense competition among active funds to be a recipient of these inflows. 

Vanguard is launching 2 new ETFs giving investors exposure to the municipal bond market. The Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEI) and the Vanguard California Tax-Exempt Bond ETF (VTEC) launched on the CBOE BZX Exchange and are designed to offer targeted exposure to certain segments of the muni market with an emphasis on quality and yield. 

Both also have low expense ratios of 0.08%, making them among the least costly within the muni fixed income category. The intermediate-focused, tax-exempt ETF is particularly timely given expectations that interest rates will decline in 2024 due to a dovish Fed and weakening economic outlook. Thus, many investors are looking to lock in yields at these levels by moving out from the short-end into the intermediate and longer-end of the curve. 

In addition to quality and generous yields, municipal bonds also have tax benefits. While VTEI is designed to appeal to a wider swathe of investors, VTEC is for investors who want exposure to California municipal debt. The yield generated from this ETF is tax exempt at the federal and state level for California residents while also prioritizing credit quality. 

Finsum: Vanguard is launching 2 intermediate-term, municipal bond ETFs that offer investors tax benefits in addition to income and quality.