Eq: Total Market
2024 has seen the stock market make 17 closing, all-time highs. Despite this strength, many are noting some reasons to be cautious about equities due to some concerning developments under the surface.
In essence, the strong performance of the indexes and mega-cap technology stocks is masking hidden weakness. This is reflected in the Dow Jones Transportation Average failing to confirm the new highs of the Dow Jones Industrial Average which is a ‘non-conformation’ according to Dow Theory. Dow Theory warns that a new high by the Industrials but not by transportation stocks is prone to failure. Similarly, riskier parts of the market like high-yield bonds and high-beta stocks are also underperforming Treasuries and low volatility stocks, respectively.
The leader of this bull market has been technology due to excitement around AI and strong earnings growth from leading tech companies. However, there are signs of exhaustion as the relative ratio of the S&P 500 tech sector has failed to confirm the breakout in the S&P 500. According to David Rosenberg, the founder and President of Rosenberg Research, “These were the most important stocks for the market, and no longer look to be in control.” He believes that the longer these measures fail to confirm the new highs in the S&P 500, the larger the risk of a reversal.
Finsum: 2024 has been a strong year for the stock market with the S&P 500 making new highs. Yet, there are some signs that the rally may be nearing exhaustion.
Category: Eq: Total Market
Keywords: #S&P 500; #bull market; #tech; #equities; #risk;
Last week, the Nasdaq made an all-time high pushing past its previous highs from January 2022. This was before the Federal Reserve embarked on an aggressive campaign of rate hikes to curb inflation. In one respect, the tech-heavy Nasdaq is playing catch-up with the S&P 500 which has been setting new record highs over the last couple of months and is now more than 10% above its January 2022 levels.
While a major component of these advances is due to the strength in the 7 largest technology stocks and frenzy around the AI boom, it’s worth noting that the equal-weighted indices for the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also made new, all-time highs as well. It’s an indication that the bull market is expanding in terms of participation. It also leads to the conclusion that the market is strong from a bottom-up perspective as well.
Another way to assess the market’s strength from a bottom-up perspective is corporate earnings. With Q4 earnings season nearly in the books, it’s clear that earnings remain robust despite a host of macro headwinds. So far, 97% of S&P 500 companies have reported. 73% topped earnings expectations, while 64% exceeded revenue estimates. Overall, earnings were up 4% compared to last year, marking the second consecutive quarter of earnings growth, validating the bullishness of investors.
Finsum: The stock market is making all-time highs consistently in 2024. The strength goes beyond the ascendant tech sector as equal-weighted indices are hitting new highs, while corporate earnings continue to grow despite an array of headwinds.
2023 was an unprecedented year for interest rate volatility. The yield on the 10-year reached a low of 3.3% in April following the regional banking crisis, peaked at 5% in October, and finished the year at 3.8% following a series of supportive inflation data.
Given that inflation has declined to 3.1% which is nearly 70% less than the highest levels of 2021, the odds of a soft landing continue to rise. Currently, the Fed’s plan is to loosen financial conditions by lowering the Fed funds rate, while it continues to shrink its balance sheet.
Part of the plan should also be to reduce bond market volatility especially since it has doubled over the past 2 years and remains elevated relative to norms. In some respects, elevated bond market volatility is a consequence of the Fed’s battle against inflation. Now, it must also effectively deal with this issue before it becomes more substantial.
Therefore, it’s likely that the Fed will cut back on its quantitative tightening program in which $95 billion worth of maturing bonds are not reinvested. Already, these efforts have succeeded in shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet by 15%. Another reason that curbing bond market volatility is necessary is that the Treasury will be auctioning off large amounts of notes and bills in the coming months.
Finsum: The Federal Reserve has made significant strides in turning inflation lower. Now, it must take steps to reduce bond market volatility.
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Morningstar Investment Management (MIM) shared its 2024 outlook for financial markets. It’s particularly bullish on fixed income due to attractive valuations, generous yields, and falling inflation. Within the asset class, it likes developed market bonds, emerging market debt, and inflation-linked fixed income.
While it sees more upside for long-duration bonds, it sees value in shorter-duration bonds for more risk-averse investors especially given that geopolitical risk will likely remain elevated in 2024. However, the yield curve is inverted which is typically a leading indicator that rates, and inflation are going to trend lower. Both developments would be more favorable for longer-duration fixed income.
It also sees bonds returning to their traditional role of dampening portfolio volatility by providing a hedge against equities and meaningful income to investors. Due to the rise in yields, investors no longer have to take on risks in search of income as they often did during the previous decade.
In regard to corporate bonds, it sees downside risk in the event of a recession as they are ‘priced for a slowdown, not a recession’. MIM is also concerned that high rates could erode company fundamentals especially in an environment of declining revenue and earnings. Thus, it recommends keeping a close eye on credit spreads and high yield bonds
Finsum: Morningstar Investment Management shared its 2024 outlook. It’s bullish on fixed income, specifically long-duration government bonds but more cautious on corporate debt given the risk of an economic slowdown turning into a recession.
Choosing the right broker-dealer is a pivotal decision for any advisor, and while the three P's — payouts, products, and platforms — often take precedence, overlooking cultural fit could be a critical mistake. Cultural fit transcends the more tangible aspects of a broker-dealer, offering a sustainable competitive edge that cannot be easily replicated.
Compensation differences and the allure of superior products or platforms might seem enticing initially, but they tend to level out over time. Culture, on the other hand, is ingrained. It's the ethos of the company, the collective behavior, and the beliefs that characterize the organization. According to James L. Heskett, Professor Emeritus at Harvard Business School, culture is not just a peripheral factor; it can "account for 20-30% of the differential in corporate performance when compared with 'culturally unremarkable' competitors."
The disruption caused by moving broker-dealers can be significant. It affects relationships, routines, and can even impact client perception. That's why ensuring a broker-dealer aligns with your values, work style, and vision for client service is vital. A broker-dealer with a compatible culture can provide a supportive environment, fostering growth and satisfaction that pure financial incentives cannot match.
Finsum: Ensuring cultural fit is essential when selecting a broker-dealer for advisors— it's the strategic edge that impacts performance and satisfaction.
There are many reasons why an advisor might decide to switch their broker-dealer or custodian: better culture, a more supportive environment, or innovative solutions for their clients, to name a few. While these are valid reasons to consider a change, advisors who prepare for their clients’ questions will be thankful they took the time to do so if or when the time comes to move.
A helpful guide is the FINRA post “What to Ask When Your Registered Financial Professional Changes Firms,” published less than a year ago. It recommends questions an investor should ask their financial advisor who is moving firms.
At the top of the list are “Could financial incentives create a conflict of interest for your registered professional?” and “Can you transfer all your holdings?” These are understandable questions your clients might seek answers to, and having transparent and well-thought-out answers will go a long way to easing their concerns, if they have any.
If you are considering a move, check out this article and use it as a guide to prepare your communication with your clients.
Finsum: Considering switching firms as an advisor? Be ready for client questions with insights from FINRA's guide. Clear communication is key!